For decades, the Canadian rental market has followed predictable patterns, allowing rental housing industry professionals and investors to plan their marketing and expansion strategies well in advance, based on historical knowledge.
Although we've seen signs of these patterns disappearing over the past 12-18 months, the market has shifted dramatically in the last 6 months, completely veering away from familiar trends. What was once a steady, reliable cycle has been replaced by volatility– with single-digit turnover rates becoming the norm and renters staying put longer than expected.
In this new environment, flexibility and real-time data have become essential tools for rental housing professionals and investors seeking to make informed, agile decisions.
Traditional Rental Seasons Are No Longer Reliable
Historically, the rental market across Canada followed a clear seasonal pattern with Spring and Summer as prime leasing seasons, seeing higher tenant turnover as renters sought to move before the school year or the onset of winter. But today, these patterns are no longer holding true. Instead, the market is being driven by a combination of factors that are reshaping the landscape.
Economic uncertainty, shifting renter behaviours, unbalanced immigration and persistent supply shortages have created an unpredictable situation that challenges conventional wisdom about how the rental market operates.
“Over the last six months, we’ve witnessed a dramatic shift in which the typically dependable seasonal trending data cannot currently be relied upon,” notes Max Steinman, CEO of Rentsync. “The rental market is now more volatile, and single-digit turnover rates across Canada reflect the increasing difficulty renters face in finding new homes, fueled by a growing reluctance to move due to affordability concerns and fast-changing consumer preferences.”
Single-digit turnover rates have become a key indicator of this new reality. As tenants are staying in their current units longer, often due to the financial burden of moving or the lack of suitable alternatives, rental professionals are facing greater challenges in anticipating demand, optimizing rental pricing and adjusting leasing strategies to accommodate this reduced renter movement.
An Absent Peak Season in 2024
Typically, May to August marks the peak leasing season for Canada’s rental housing industry, however, 2024 has bucked this trend, leaving property managers and owners across the country concerned about what this shift means for the future.
From March to June 2024, rental demand declined for three consecutive months, leading to a historically slow summer for leasing activity. While July did see a +7.3% increase in active renters. This rebound was however not enough to compensate for the downturn experienced earlier in the season and brought renter demand back to the levels last seen in March.
The summer leasing season, which normally delivers a significant portion of annual leasing activity, failed to materialize. Year-over-year, the number of active prospects is down by -34.3% nationally. This signals a dramatic departure from the norm, leaving the industry to question what the future holds.
Max Steinman, CEO of Rentsync, notes, "This year’s leasing season has highlighted how unpredictable the market has become. The decline in demand we’ve seen across the country is a wake-up call for industry professionals to adjust their strategies."
The previously mentioned factors have contributed to this shift. In addition, the cost of rent has driven many Canadians to stay in place, further shrinking the pool of active prospects. Despite fewer renters in the market, those who are searching are more active, with leads per property up +10.4% in July.
David Azikov, Product Manager of Data Services at Rentsync, adds, “What we’re seeing is not just a seasonal dip, but a fundamental change in renter behaviour. Many renters are more cautious, choosing to stay put instead of entering the market due to affordability challenges.”
This shift away from peak seasonality presents a challenge as leasing professionals are now facing a more competitive environment as they try to maintain lead flow and attract quality tenants in a market that has become a renter’s game.
Navigating an Unpredictable Market
Considering all of the current industry challenges, the question is: how can rental professionals and investors make informed decisions in such an environment?
“The idea that you can set your rental strategy at the start of the year and ride it out is outdated. We’ve entered a period where the rental market is not just unpredictable but rapidly changing,” says Steinman. “The rental professionals and investors who succeed will be the ones who understand the importance of staying flexible and leveraging real-time data to make informed decisions.”
That requires insights into local market conditions, tenant behavior, and emerging city or even neighbourhood-level trends– which isn’t readily available in mainstream public resources on a real-time basis. With consistent, timely access to this kind of information though, it’s possible to adapt strategies to match the current environment, even when conditions change unexpectedly.
“Data isn’t just about knowing what happened last month or last year anymore—it’s about knowing what’s happening right now,” says Azikov. “Rental Market Intelligence tools like our Market Insight Reports give you the ability to track rental trends in real time, allowing you to pivot your strategy as needed. Whether it’s pricing adjustments or lease terms, having accurate, timely data gives you the flexibility to adapt.”
Embracing the Future of Rental Market Strategy
As Canada’s rental market continues to evolve, the traditional playbook of following seasonality, relying on historic trends and making slow, incremental adjustments no longer works. Being able to adapt to unexpected changes in tenant demand, pricing, and availability ensures that you stay competitive, even when the market doesn’t behave as expected.
By embracing Rental Market Intelligence (RMI) tools like Rentsync’s Market Insight Reports, you can navigate the uncertainty of today’s market with confidence, adjusting your strategies as needed and making data-driven decisions that keep your properties occupied and performing well.
The future of rental management is here—and it’s all about being adaptable, informed, and ready for anything.
Ready to navigate the rental market with confidence? Explore Rentsync’s first Rental Market Intelligence tool– Market Insight Reports and make data-driven decisions with real-time information at your fingertips. Learn more here!