Executive Summary
In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).
The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city, and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.
As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.
Methodology
In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months.
For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 6.3 this month, versus 4.2 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 2.1 points this month.
Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.
For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 32% in January versus December. In January 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 54% compared to January 2020.
Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. Position will vary depending on demand.
For example: This month, Oshawa moved up 1 spot versus last month due to an upward month-over-month change (32% increase) in prospects per property. Whereas Surrey, BC moved down 1 spot (from 1st to 2nd on the list), despite maintaining its demand score from last month.
*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for January 2021 versus December 2020, as well as a year-over-year comparison from January 2021 versus January 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
Key Takeaways:
Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from December to January increased 25.7%, and number of available properties also increased by 8.8%, showing stronger demand overall for the month of January versus December.
*These trends are consistent with seasonality, as prospects begin to ramp up their search for rental housing at the beginning of the year. For example, last year, overall unique prospects increased by 22.2% from December 2019 to January 2020 and available properties increased by 11.1% during the same time.
This month each market saw an increase in total prospects per property: Primary (+26.6%), Secondary (+23%), and Tertiary (+18.5%). Overall, the rental housing markets experienced an overall growth of 22.7% prospects per properties in January 2021 compared to December 2020.
*Additionally, the majority of Canadian cities experienced an increase in demand moving into January 2021 versus the end of last year.
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is actually up 24.9% this year, versus the same time last year, however, supply is also up 33.6% with more than 3,187 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year.
Primary markets are down (-25.95%), secondary markets are down (-3.8%), and tertiary markets are down (-3.9%) this year-versus last year. As you can see primary markets are suffering the greatest blow due to the pandemic, while secondary and tertiary are relatively stable given the increase in supply year-over-year.
Therefore, increased supply has impacted unique prospects per property across the majority of Canadian cities year-over-year. As more supply floods the market (i.e. Airbnbs), demand is being spread out.
We can hypothesize that this downward trend in primary markets may begin to bottom out as vaccines begin to roll out in the later part of the year, as cities begin to reopen and restrictions begin to loosen. However, for the time being, we can expect COVID-19 and remote work, to continue to impact migration away from urban city centers to locations with more space and more affordable housing, as remote work continues to increase.
Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand
*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for Jan 2021 versus Dec 2020
Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month
*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced a rebound in demand this month, with few experiencing any significant downward trend.
Upwards
- Oshawa, ON held strong near the top of the list and came out 1st this month, raising demand by +2.1 and increasing prospects per property by 32%.
- North York, ON moved up 11 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +2.1, and a 52% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Brampton, ON moved up 5 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +1.8, and a 46% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Welland, ON moved up 9 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +1.5, and a 44% increase in unique prospects per property.
- East York, ON moved up 27 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +2.1, and a 65% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Quebec, QC moved up 9 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +1.1, and a 46% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Oakville, ON moved up 2 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +0.8, and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Kamloops, BC moved up 1 spot, and saw a +0.6 increase in demand, and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
- Surrey, BC dropped from the #1 spot this month, but stayed demand by -0.3 points, and saw a 16% decrease in unique prospects per property.
- Nanaimo, BC moved up 15 spots overall, remained steady at 2.4 demand points, but saw a slight 4% decline in unique prospects per property.
- Montreal, QC dropped 8 spots on the list, but remained at 1.0 demand, and experienced a decline of 6% in unique prospects per property.
Downwards
- Dartmouth, ON entered the list, as it increased it's available properties to 20+ this month, however due to this demand dropped -0.4 points, and saw an 11% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
- Peterborough, ON moved down 12 spots, and reduced demand by -0.2, experiencing a drop of 20% in unique prospects per property.
Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): Jan 2021 vs. Dec 2020
Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)
- Oshawa, ON took the top spot this month, experiencing an increased demand of +2.1 points, and an increase of 32% in unique prospects per property.
- Surrey, BC dropped to second, and saw demand remain at 5.8 points, with a slight 2% decrease in unique prospects per property.
- North York, ON moved up 11 points this month, increasing demand by +2.1 points and +52% in unique prospects per property.
- Brampton, ON moved up 5 spots on the list, and saw a +1.8 increase in demand, and a 46% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
- Abbotsford, BC moved down 2 spots, but experienced increased demand of +0.7 points, and a 17% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
- Welland, ON moved up 11 spots this month, increased demand by +1.5 points, and increased unique prospects per property by 44%.
- Dartmouth, NS entered the list due to reaching over 20 properties in our database, experiencing a decrease in demand of -0.3 points, and a 11% decrease in unique prospects for the month.
- East York, ON moved up 27 spots on the list, and saw an increase in demand by +2.1, and 65% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Brantford, ON re-entered the list this month, and saw an increase of +0.7 points, and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Niagara Falls, ON also entered the list due to an influx of available properties, and experienced an increase of +1.0 demand points, and +31% unique prospects per property.
Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): Jan 2021 vs. Jan 2020
Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)
- Oshawa, ON moved up 16 spots from this time last year, and increased demand by +3.4 points, and increased 54% year-over-year in unique prospects per property.
- Surrey, BC moved down 1 spot this year, and decreased demand by -0.6 points, and experienced an decrease of 10% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
- North York, ON moved up 3 spots this year, but remained the same in demand (4.0 points), and saw a 1% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Brampton, ON remained in the same position as last year, but saw a decreased demand of -0.9 points, and a 18% decrease in unique prospects per property.
- Abbotsford, BC moved up 11 spots on the list, increased demand by +0.7 points, and increased unique prospects per property by 19%.
- Welland, ON moved up 16 points this year, and increased demand by +1.1 points versus this time last year, and saw an increase of 31% in unique prospects per property.
- Dartmouth, NS moved up 27 spots, but decreased demand by 0.7 points, and a decrease in unique prospects per property of 24%.
- East York, ON moved down 6 spots, decreased demand by -1.5, and decreased unique prospects per property by 33% this year versus last year this time.
- Brantford, ON moved up 6 spots on the list, and saw demand increase +1.1, and 7% unique prospects per property.
- Niagara Falls, ON moved up 1 spot, but saw a slightly reduced demand of -0.1, and a decrease of 6% unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.
*The increase in demand found in Oshawa, ON, Abbotsford, BC, and Welland, ON could be related to remote work and migration to less densely populated areas with reduced rent rates.
*These trends are consistent with seasonality, as prospects begin to ramp up their searches. For example, last year overall unique prospects increased by 22.2% from December to January.
An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets
In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets:
- Primary (Populations Over 600K)
- Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)
- Tertiary (Populations Between 235-175K)
Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations, and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.
Key Takeaways:
Primary Markets (Populations >600K)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): Jan 2021 vs. Dec 2020
Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month
*Overall demand in primary markets increased this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by 26.6% overall this month versus last month, and supply increased by +8.5% in primary markets.
Upward
- North York, ON increased demand by +2.1 and +52% in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
- Mississauga, ON increased by +0.4 demand points, and saw an increase of 17% unique prospects per property this month.
- Scarborough, ON increased demand by +0.6 points and experienced an 28% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
- Vancouver, BC experienced an increase of -0.5 demand points and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
- Calgary, AB increased demand by +0.4 points, and saw a 24% jump in unique prospects per property.
- Winnipeg, MB saw a slight +0.2 increase in demand and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
- Ottawa, ON increased demand by +0.2 and went up +17% in unique prospects per property.
- Toronto, ON experienced a slight increase +0.1 in demand and a 5% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Edmonton, AB increased demand by +0.2 and experienced a 17% increase in unique prospects per property.
No Change in Demand
- Montreal, ON remained with a demand score of 1.0, however, it was the only city in the primary market to see a decrease (-6%) in unique prospects per property. This is likely attributed to the continued impact that COVID-19 is having in this area, the migration away from major metros, and the closure of borders in Quebec.
*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from December to January show a slight rebound from the previous month, and are a good indication of stability for 2021.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): Jan 2021 vs. Jan 2020
Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, total unique prospects per property has decreased -25.95% year-over-year in primary markets, however, this year, supply is outpacing demand – listings for rental properties are up 29.5% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.
*Due to increased vacancies/availability, supply is outpacing demand in primary markets in January of this year versus last year.
Upward
- Winnipeg, MB has experienced a slight increase in demand (+0.2) from this time last year and has moved up 3 spots in primary markets, and an increase of 15% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
No Demand Change
- North York, ON remained 1st on the list, and held steady in demand score, with a slight increase of 1% in unique prospects per property.
- Edmonton, AB saw demand score remain at 0.8 this year, however saw a 4% decline in unique prospects per property.
Downward
- Mississauga, ON had a -0.4 point decrease in demand, and a 19% decline in unique prospects per property.
- Scarborough, ON saw a -0.9 point decrease in demand, and a 34% decline in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
- Vancouver, BC experienced a -0.8 decrease in demand and a 32% decrease in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
- Ottawa, ON decreased by -0.7 in demand, and saw a 41% decline in unique prospects per property from last year.
- Toronto, ON decreased demand by -1.0 points and saw a 49% decline in unique prospects per property.
- Montreal, QC reduced demand by -1.9, and has seen a drastic decline of 66% in unique prospects per property.
*Certain primary cities such as Winnipeg, MB and Edmonton, AB continue to be less impacted by the effects of COVID-19 on year-over-year demand due to spacious more affordable housing conditions and less impacted by lockdown measures that other major cities are experiencing.
*As work from home orders continue, and primary markets in Ontario and Quebec remain hot beds for COVID-19, it is not surprising that cities in these regions are seeing these downward trends in demand and unique prospects per property. Given that many workers have migrated away from these areas for the foreseeable future, a sudden resurgence in demand is unlikely for some time.
Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)
Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): Jan 2021 vs. Dec 2020
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Secondary markets performed strong this month, with a +23% average increase in demand (prospects per property) month-over-month, despite an additional +11.7% increase in supply in the rental housing market.
Upward
- Oshawa, ON increased demand by +2.1 points this month and has seen an increase of 32% in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
- Brampton, ON saw an increase of +1.8 in demand, and a 46% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
- Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.3 increase in demand, and 13% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Hamilton, ON experienced an increase of +0.5 in demand and an 18% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
- Quebec City, QC experienced an increase of +1.1 in demand and an increase of 46% in unique prospects per property this month, and moved up 4 spots, making it the biggest secondary market mover this month.
- Halifax, NS saw an increase of +0.6 demand points and an increase of 30% unique prospects per property versus last month.
- London, ON reported a +0.3 increase in demand and 14% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
- Windsor, ON experienced an increase of +0.3 demand points, and an increase of 20% unique prospects per property this month.
- Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.4 in demand, and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
- Surrey, BC dropped from the top spot, but remained at 5.8 demand points, and saw a slight 2% decline in prospects per property.
Canadian Cities – Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): Jan 2021 vs. Jan 2020
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, total unique prospects per property are down -3.8% in secondary markets this year, however, supply is up 28% in secondary markets, therefore supply is outpacing demand this year versus last year.
Upward
- Oshawa, ON increased demand by +3.4 points and 54% unique prospects per property this year versus last year.
- Quebec City, QC increased demand by +1.0 this year, and unique prospects per property by 15%.
- Windsor, ON had a +0.1 increase in demand, and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
- Victoria, BC experienced a +0.3 increase in demand and 16% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.
Downward
- Surrey, BC decreased in demand by -0.6 points and had a 10% decline in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
- Brampton, ON decreased in demand by -0.9 points, and saw a decline in unique prospects per property by 18% this year versus last.
- Etobicoke, ON demand decreased by -1.3 points and saw a 34% decline in unique prospects per property.
- Hamilton, ON decreased in demand by -0.7 points this year and experienced a 21% decline in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
- Halifax, NS saw a 0.8 point decrease in demand and a 40% decrease in unique prospects per property
- London, ON decreased its demand score by +1.6 and saw a 12% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
*Secondary markets that are close to densely populated areas with less space and higher rental rates, such as Surrey, BC and Etobicoke, ON, are experiencing the greatest decline in secondary market demand. Remote work is making it possible for renters to look to certain suburbs for more affordable housing i.e. Oshawa, ON and Quebec City, QC.
Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-175K)
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): Jan 2021 vs. Dec 2020
Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Overall, tertiary markets experience a strong increase in demand this month versus last month.
*Unique prospects per property increased by +18.5% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with a decrease of -0.5% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.
Upward
- Abbotsford, BC experienced an increase in demand (+0.7) and in unique prospects per property (17%) this month versus last month.
- Kitchener, ON went up +0.7 in demand this month and experienced a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Burnaby, BC increased demand by +0.6 and 20% in unique prospects per property.
- Oakville, ON saw a +0.8 increase in demand this month versus last month and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Sudbury, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 13% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
- Burlington, ON went up +0.2 in demand, and saw a 14% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Nepean, ON increased demand by +0.2 points and saw an increase of 13% in unique prospects per property this month.
- Richmond, BC experienced a +0.2 increase in demand points and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
- Saskatoon, SK also increased demand by +0.2 and went up 15% in unique prospects per property this month.
- Regina, SK saw a +0.2 increase in demand this month and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): Jan 2021 vs. Jan 2020
Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year
*According to our data, tertiary markets are showing resilience in demand this year versus last year.
*Overall, demand (total unique prospects per property) is down -3.9% this year versus the same time last year, however, supply is up +19.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that supply is outpacing demand in tertiary markets this year versus this time last year.
Upward
- Abbotsford, BC saw a +0.7 point increase in demand this year, and a 19% increase in prospects per property versus last year.
- Oakville, ON experienced a +0.1 increase in demand, and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Sudbury, ON saw a +0.7 point increase in demand as well as a 32% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
- Richmond, BC went up +0.7 demand points and 48% in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
- Saskatoon, SK increased its demand by +0.2 points and unique prospects per property by 17% this year versus the same time last year.
- Regina, SK experienced a +0.1 increase in demand, and a 17% increase in unique prospects per property.
Downward
- Kitchener, ON decreased demand by -1.8 points and unique prospects per property by 38% this year versus last year.
- Burnaby, BC decreased demand by -0.4 points and -13% unique prospects per property from this time last year.
- Burlington, ON saw a -0.1 point decrease in demand, and an 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
- Nepean, ON experienced a -0.9 point decline in demand, and a 37% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
Conclusion
The data shown in this report show that rental market demand has increased in many Canadian cities month-over-month, and is showing normal seasonal shifts in demand despite the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns.
Additionally, there are notable year-over-year changes in demand in certain markets. Primary markets continue to indicate declining demand, where secondary and tertiary markets show relative stability year-over-year, and in same cases extreme growth, due to migration away from city centers. Areas with lower population and more affordable housing are seeing the greatest increase in demand.
We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.