October offered no off-ramps for Canada’s rental market, as national demand continued to decline, though not at an accelerating pace. This marks the third consecutive month of slowdown, and based on current activity, we anticipate at least two more months of easing before the usual January recovery. Early signals suggest we’re heading toward one of the slowest winter leasing seasons in recent history.
Nationally, active prospect counts fell 14.0% month-over-month, 14.2% year-over-year, and 19.2% year-to-date, reinforcing expectations for a weaker-than-average winter. Across major metros, declines were slightly more moderate at -13.4% MoM and -13.1% YoY, while secondary markets saw the sharpest pullbacks and tertiary markets remained comparatively stable. The alternating months of growth and contraction throughout 2025’s first half left summer leasing softer overall, mirroring a broader drop in renter confidence and mobility across the country.
As we move into the colder months, new apartment construction is surging in several of Canada’s largest urban centres. This growing pipeline, paired with weaker rental demand, points to further rent softening in early 2026 if activity doesn’t rebound.
At the same time, home construction has nearly stalled, driven by higher financing costs and weaker buyer sentiment. While that slowdown will ultimately funnel more Canadians into the rental market, the impact won’t be immediate... it’s more of a two-year outlook at best. In the near term, property owners and managers will likely continue to feel the strain of slower leasing velocity through winter.
National Stats (Month-over-Month):
National Stats (Year-over-Year):
By Market Segment (Active Prospects, MoM):
With demand still weakening but the pace of decline moderating, November and December will likely see further softening before stabilizing early in the new year. Record apartment completions and softer renter sentiment continue to weigh on leasing momentum, particularly in large urban centres where competition is highest.
Looking ahead, January’s recovery is expected to underperform historical norms, leaving much of the market operating below 2024 demand levels through the winter. Properties that emphasize affordability, liveability, and convenience will be best positioned to capture interest from a smaller, more selective renter pool.
Demand scores declined by (-11.9%) in October across our top markets in demand. Active prospects declined (-13.4%), while active properties declined by (-1.7%), resulting in a decline in average prospects per property of (-11.9%). This decline represents the third consecutive month of shrinking rental demand, with September representing the highest rate of decline and October showing a slight moderation. The top 10 markets in demand reported a more moderate decline of (-4.9%) in demand scores, alongside a (-13.0%) decline in active prospects. After a year of false starts, we are now well into the winter drop in rental activity.
Month-over-month (M/M): Within our top 40 markets, demand scores were down (-11.9%) in October 2025 compared with September 2025. October saw a lower relative monthly decline when compared to September
Annual demand comparisons show a picture of continued declines in rental activity, alongside a moderation of long-term trends. Annual demand score comparisons show a year-over-year decline of (-8.3%), Active prospects are down (-13.1%), and active properties are down marginally (-0.4%). Amongst the top 10 markets, we see a different story with prospects down only (-7.1%), and properties down (-13.3%), resulting in an increase in active prospects per property of 7.1% compared to last year.
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Within our top 40 markets, demand scores are down -8.3% in October 2025 compared with October 2024. While active prospects are down, and rental demand continues to trend downwards into the winter months, we are likely to see a marginal recovery in the new year.
To provide a more detailed analysis of the rental demand in specific markets across Canada, we have segmented our market data into 3 key market segments.
Examining these market segments individually offers a deeper understanding of demand patterns within larger population centres, and allows us to identify trends across markets.
*Overall demand scores are down -16.2% month-over-month, unique prospects are down -14.4%, and properties are up 2.2%.
Primary markets experienced the second-largest monthly declines in active prospects of all market segments, which, when combined with rebounding property counts, resulted in above-average tightening of market conditions, with average prospects per property down (-16.2%) month over month. While all core markets experienced this seasonal shift, in Toronto, both Scarborough and North York saw rental activity rebound in October, suggesting that pent-up demand may be shifting to relatively more affordable areas of larger cities.
*Year-over-year demand scores are down 12.9%, prospects are down -16.3%, and properties are up 1.0%.
Annual demand comparisons show that primary markets experienced the largest overall decline in active prospects of all market segments. With a growing supply of available properties, and a declining average prospect per property count (-17.2%), year-over-year primary markets are moving further into the realm of a renters market. With greater competition amongst properties for a declining population of active renters, we expect these markets to continue showing a trend of declining activity into the winter months. Once again, as with the monthly comparisons, we see that communities situated near larger, more expensive markets that offer greater relative affordability are showing lower relative rates of decline, if not complete year-over-year rebounds.
*Secondary markets demand scores are up 2.0% month-over-month, unique prospects are down -15.5%, and properties are down 17.1%.
Secondary markets, while experiencing a similar rate of declining rental activity to September, are showing relative recovery due in part to the lower relative decline of active prospects against active properties, resulting in the average number of prospects per property increasing by 2.0% month-over-month. While all secondary markets in our demand rankings are posting declining rental activity, there continues to be a subset posting below-average declines, suggesting greater relative stability. In October, this list included Surrey, Etobicoke, and London, which reported on average a 63% lower rate of monthly declines in active prospects relative to the broader list of secondary markets.
*Overall, year-over-year demand scores are up +0.3% year-over-year, with prospects down by -11.1%, and properties are down by -6.8%.
Secondary markets maintain their position with rental activity declines falling between primary and secondary markets on an annual basis. While the overall picture is of declining rental demand, Surrey, Halifax, and London all posted growth in active renters, suggesting that these markets all show greater stability and likely, through a combination of the demographics of active renters and greater relative affordability, a strong and persistent demand for rentals.
*Demand scores in tertiary markets decreased by -6.0% month-over-month, unique prospects are down -8.8%, and available properties are down -3.0%.
Tertiary markets continue to outperform the broader market, posting below-average seasonal declines in active renters and average prospect per-property counts approaching those of primary markets. This is due in large part to the more moderate trajectory of demand trends in Tertiary markets. Some tertiary markets also continue to post monthly growth, including Guelph and Cambridge, along with East York in Toronto, which continues the trend of the City’s outlying areas showing strong recovery; at the same time, the city centre slows in the winter months.
*Overall, year-over-year demand scores are up by +8.2%, unique prospects are down -2.4%, and available properties are down -5.1%.
Tertiary markets remain relatively stable and disconnected from broader demand trends experienced by other market segments. They continue to show greater relative recovery each month, in October, while active prospects declined, available properties declined at a greater rate, resulting in a relative improvement in market conditions for property owners and managers with a growing average prospect per property count. Tertiary markets experiencing recovery are relatively dispersed throughout the country, including Guelph, St. Catharines, Kingston, Cambridge, Regina, and Abbotsford.
October’s slowdown wasn’t just seasonal, it was symptomatic. Beneath the surface-level drop in activity lies a deeper set of structural challenges shaping the next phase of Canada’s rental market.
Record apartment completions and high inventory levels are colliding with weaker renter sentiment, forcing properties to compete harder for fewer leads. In most major cities, that competition is now visible through softer asking rents, slower leasing velocity, and rising incentive use. The pressure is unlikely to ease soon. With migration slowing, job growth flattening, and fewer non-permanent residents entering the market, the renter pool itself is temporarily shrinking.
At the same time, consumer confidence in the broader economy remains muted and that uncertainty is translating directly into leasing behaviour. Renters are deferring moves, opting for shorter-term renewals, or delaying household formation altogether. These decisions compound the effects of excess supply, creating a feedback loop where even well-positioned communities must work harder to maintain absorption rates through winter.
In the short term, this is a challenging environment. But it’s also transitional. The market is slowly rebalancing after several years of intense demand and limited supply. As home construction continues to slow and affordability gaps widen, much of this lost rental demand will return, just not immediately. The pace of recovery will depend less on macro policy or rate cuts, and more on how effectively rental operators adapt to a renter base that’s cautious, budget-conscious, and value-driven.
What’s Next for Canadian Rental Demand?
The final two months of 2025 will likely extend the current softness before the typical January recovery begins. But the nature of that rebound will look different: smaller in scale, more fragmented by region, and shaped by the competition between new supply and stalled renter mobility.
Heading into 2026, we expect to see continued downward pressure on rents in oversupplied markets, along with greater bifurcation between high-performing and struggling assets. Properties that emphasize livability, service, and transparency will retain stronger occupancy, while those relying solely on pricing will face steeper challenges.
The broader story isn’t decline, it’s recalibration. Canada’s rental market is entering a phase of reset rather than retreat, where long-term fundamentals remain sound, but short-term strategy matters more than ever.
To present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, They are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique leads per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data.
For Example: East York, ON received a demand score of 6.1 this month, versus 4.1 last month. East York experienced a 2.0-point increase in its demand score.
Demand Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease in unique leads per property.
For Example: The month-over-month demand scores in East York, ON, experienced a 50% increase in October 2025 versus September 2025. The year-over-year demand score in East York remained unchanged from October 2024.
Position: The position is determined by unique leads per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.
For Example: This month, East York, ON, gained 4 positions to achieve the top position in our Top Canadian Cities in Demand Rankings.
*This report provides month-over-month rental listing data for October 2025 versus September 2025 and a year-over-year comparison from October 2025 versus October 2024. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.