Rentsync Blog

Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: October 2021

Written by David Aizikov | October 14, 2021 at 4:00 AM

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data. 

For example: Waterloo, ON received a demand score of 7.5 this month, versus 9.2 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an decreased it's demand score by 1.7 points this month.

Demand Percent (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease in demand.

For example: The month-over-month demand in Waterloo, ON went down 18% in September versus August. In September 2021, the year-over-year demand in Waterloo, ON went up 166% compared to September 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Waterloo, ON moved down 5 spots on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Waterloo, ON is up 12 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for September 2021 versus August 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from September 2021 versus September 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.

Key Takeaways

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, demand from August to September increased by 26.97%. The month-over-month market snapshot showed:

  • Primary: Demand increased +25.61%

  • Secondary: Demand increased +35.6%

  • Tertiary: Demand increased +47.4%

*The continued increase in demand is relative to a pent up surge, as a return to office work and in class learning has drastically impacted demand. Also, as rent rates begin to rise, renters are taking the opportunity to lock in their leases.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up 164.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada has rebounded significantly this year versus last. Overall, the year-over-year (September '21 vs September '20) data shows:

  • Primary: Demand increased by +86% 

  • Secondary: Demand is up +105%

  • Tertiary: Demand is up +123.5%

The year-over-year rental market analysis for September 2021 shows that the rental housing surge continues as renters return to downtown cores, as well as greater movement across each market due to increased vaccinations, work, and student populations, as well as immigration
 

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for September 2021 versus August 2021

*We've added rental rate data for month-over-month and year-over-year reporting, in order to provide greater scope and understanding of rental market trends, specifically for 1 Bedroom and 2 Bedroom units in Canadian cities. 

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

Upwards

  • Surrey, BC moved to the top spot, and set the new demand threshold for the month, scoring a 10.

  • Victoria, BC jumped up 6 spots, saw a +4.4 point increase due to a 78% increase in market demand.

  • Oshawa, ON is back on the list this month scoring 9.9 demand points.

  • North Vancouver, BC saw a demand point increase of +4.1 due to a lift of 73% in market demand.

  • Halifax, NS moved up 6 spots into the top 10 list, with a +3.0 point increase and a boost of 58% rental demand.

  • New Westminster, BC moved up 4 spots with a +2.5 point change and 46% increase in demand.

  • St. Catharines, ON moved up 5 spots, and increased by +2.5 points with an increase of 64% in demand.

  • Vancouver, BC moved up 5 spots, and saw an increase of +2.3 and a 61% increase in demand.

  • Kingston, ON moved up 1 spot, experienced a +2.1 point increase, and a 53% increase in demand.

  • Guelph, ON moved up 1 spot, and experienced a +2.0 point increase, and a 52% increase in unique prospects per property.

  • Richmond, BC moved up 3 spots, saw a +1.8 point increase and a 48% increase in demand.

  • Cambridge, ON moved up 9 spots, saw a +2.2 point increase and a 65% increase in demand.

  • London, ON moved up 3 spots, and saw a +1.9 point increase, and a 25% increase in unique prospects per property.

  • Lethbridge, AB moved up 6 spots, with a +0.6 increase in demand, and a 54% increase in demand.

  • Etobicoke, ON moved up 4 spots, and saw a +1.5 point increase, and a 44% increase in demand.

  • Sudbury, ON moved up 6 spots, and saw a +1.9 increase, and a 33% increase in demand.

  • Mississauga, ON moved up 1 spot, and saw a +1.2 increase, and a 46% increase in demand.

  • Burlington, ON moved up 3 spots, saw a +1.2 increase in demand, and a 51% increase in demand.

  • Prince Albert, SK moved up 3 spots, and saw a +0.9 point increase and a 45% increase in rental market demand.

  • Sarnia, ON moved up 4 spots, and saw a +1.4 point increase, and a 99% increase in demand.

  • Lloydminster, AB moved up 3 spots, with a +0.6 point increase and a 52% increase in demand.

Downwards

  • Waterloo, ON moved down 5 spots, with a -1.7 point change and 18% decrease in demand.

  • Lethbridge, AB moved down 8 spots, experiencing a -0.2 point decline and a 4% decrease in demand.

  • Red Deer, AB moved down 5 spots, experiencing a -0.2 point decline, and a 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

  • Montreal, QC moved down 8 spots, with a -0.2 point decrease, and a 16% decline in demand.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): September 2021 vs. August 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

  1. Surrey, BC moved to the top spot, and set the new demand threshold for the month, scoring a 10.

  2. Victoria, BC jumped up 6 spots, saw a +4.4 point increase due to a 78% increase in market demand.

  3. Oshawa, ON is back on the list this month scoring 9.9 demand points.

  4. North Vancouver, BC saw a demand point increase of +4.1 due to a lift of 73% in market demand.

  5. Halifax, NS moved up 6 spots into the top 10 list, with a +3.0 point increase and a boost of 58% rental demand.

  6. New Westminster, BC moved up 4 spots with a +2.5 point change and 46% increase in demand.

  7. Waterloo, ON moved down 5 spots, with a -1.7 point change and 18% decrease in demand.

  8. East York, ON moved down 1 spot, but saw a +0.9 point increase, and a 33% increase in demand.

  9. Burnaby, BC moved down 5 spots, but still increased by +1.0 point and saw a +18% lift in demand.

  10.  Kitchener, ON moved down 5 spots, but increased by a +0.7, and +12% in rental market demand.

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in September 2021 versus August 2021 came from Victoria, BC, North Vancouver, BC, Halifax, NS, and New Westminster, BC, which all experienced a significant increase in overall rental market demand.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): September 2021 vs. September 2020

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

  1. Surrey, BC moved up 1 spot from last year, increasing their score by +2.8 and 39% in year-over-year demand.

  2. Victoria, BC jumped up 22 spots, saw a +8.5 point increase due to a whopping 548% increase in market demand.

  3. Oshawa, ON was not on the list last year as they did not meet the property threshold, but sit in 3rd position as demand remains strong in this market.

  4. North Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots this year, saw a demand point increase of +6.9 due to a lift of 236% in market demand.

  5. Halifax, NS moved up 6 spots from last year, with a +5.2 point increase and a boost of 187% in rental demand.

  6. New Westminster, BC moved up 10 spots this year, with a +4.1 point change and 114% increase in demand.

  7. Waterloo, ON moved up 12 spots this year, with a +4.7 point change and 166% increase in demand.

  8. East York, ON moved down 5 spots, but saw a +3.9 point increase, and a 108% increase in demand.

  9. Burnaby, BC moved up 8 spots this year, increased by +3.3 points and saw a +118% lift in demand.

  10.  Kitchener, ON moved down 1 spot, but increased by a +3.1 points, and +86% in rental market demand.

*It is fair to say that the rental market has bounced back significantly in early fall of 2021 versus early fall 2020. There continues to be a drastic increase in demand in pockets of the country with additional space and where rent rates have not yet peaked.

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

  1. Primary (Populations Over 600K)

  2. Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)

  3. Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K)

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways

Month-Over-Month (M/M)

  • Primary: Demand increased by +25.6% in September versus August.

  • Secondary: Demand increased +35.6% in September versus August.

  • Tertiary: Demand increased +47.4% in September versus August.

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)

  • Primary: Demand increased by +86% this year versus last year.

  • Secondary: Demand is up +105% this year versus last year.

  • Tertiary: Demand is up +123.5%, this year versus last year.

Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): September 2021 vs. August 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Demand in primary markets increased this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by +25.6% in primary markets this month.

Upward

  • Vancouver, BC increased +2.3 in demand difference of +61% since last month.

  • North York, ON saw a +1.3 point increase and a 38% increase in overall demand.

  • Mississauga, ON saw a +1.2 increase in demand points resulting in a +46% in month-over-month demand.

  • Calgary, AB saw a +1.0 point increase and experienced a +34% increase in demand from last month.

  • Scarborough, ON experienced a +0.8 increase in demand, a +30% lift since last month.

  • Ottawa, ON went up +0.6 in demand and a 25% increase since the previous month.

  • Toronto, ON saw a +0.6 demand point increase due to a 31% lift in market demand.

  • Winnipeg, MB increased demand score by +0.3 points and saw a 31% increase in market demand this month versus last month.

  • Edmonton, AB went up +0.4 demand points and saw a 29% increase in market demand.

Downwards

  • Montreal, QC reported a -0.2 point decrease based on a 16% reduction in market demand.

*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from September to August has increased in the majority of cities. Primary markets are beginning to regain momentum as COVID restrictions ease and a return to downtown cores reemerge.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): September 2021 vs. September 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total demand increased +86% year-over-year in primary markets.

Upward

  • Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots, experiencing a +4.4 demand point increase and a 261% increase in market demand year-over-year.

  • North York, ON saw a 1.9 increase in demand from this time last year and an increase of 86% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

  • Mississauga, ON moved down 1 spot, but had a +1.7 point increase, and a 78% increase in market demand.

  • Calgary, AB moved up 1 spot from this time last year and saw a +1.6 point increase and a 143% demand increase.

  • Scarborough, ON experienced a +1.4 point increase from this time last year and a 72% demand increase.

  • Ottawa, ON increased by +1.4 demand points and saw a 101% lift in demand.

  • Toronto, ON increased by +1.4 points and saw a 116% increase in market demand.

  • Winnipeg, MB saw a +0.3 increase in demand from a 22% increase in market demand.

  • Edmonton, AB moved up 1 spot and +0.6 points with a lift of 82% in market demand.

Downwards

  • Montreal, QC increased demand by +0.7 and has seen an increase of 118% in unique prospects per property.

*Overall, year-over-year primary market demand has rebounded this year versus the same time last year, which was impacted dramatically due to increased market uncertainty. As more processes and measures have been put in place to maintain safe conditions for tours and move-ins, and as vaccines have become more widely accessible, plus the return to in class learning, work, and loosening travel restrictions, has contributed to this surge in demand.

Year-over-year rent rates appear to still be in recovery for some major cities, with exceptions in Vancouver, BC, North York, ON, Mississauga, ON, and Calgary, AB, who have swung back in dramatic fashion.

Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): September 2021 vs. August 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw demand increase by +35.6% this month.

Upwards

  • Surrey, BC increased by +1.4 points and saw a 16% increase in market demand.

  • Victoria, BC saw a +4.4 point increase and a 78% increase in market demand.

  • Oshawa, ON returned to the list this month after falling below the threshold of 20 available  properties and saw a demand score of 9.9, for this given period.

  • Halifax, NS experienced a +3.0 point increase and a 58% increase in market demand this month versus last month.

  • Kitchener, ON saw an increase of +0.7 points from a 12% lift in market demand.

  • Brampton, ON went up +0.9 points with a demand increase of 20% from last month.

  • London, ON reported a +0.9 point increase and a 53% increase in demand this month versus last.

  • Hamilton, ON scored +1.2 points higher this month, and saw a 33% increase in demand this month versus last.

  • Etobicoke, ON saw a +1.5 point increase and a 44% increase in market demand this month versus last.

  • Windsor, ON experienced a +1.0 point lift, and a 40% increase in demand.

*Overall, secondary markets continued to see an increase in demand this month, and continue to show the greatest increase in market demand despite a return to primary markets. Although some workers are returning to offices, many are now in permanently remote jobs and are willing to choose commuter cities, or even cities across the country that offer greater space and affordability.

Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): September 2021 vs. September 2020

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is up +105% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.

Upward

  • Surrey, BC increased +2.8 points and +39% in market demand this year versus last year.

  • Victoria, BC experienced the highest jump in demand with an increase of +8.5 points and a major 548% lift in market demand.

  • Oshawa, ON experienced a +3.9 point increase and a 65% lift in demand this year versus last year.

  • Halifax, NS moved up 3 spots this year, with a +5.2 point increase and a 187% jump in market demand from this time last year.

  • Kitchener, ON saw a +3.1 point increase due to an 86% increase in year-over-year market demand.

  • Hamilton, ON increased by +1.8 points this year and experienced a 119% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

  • London, ON went up +3.2 points and saw a +154% increase in market demand this year versus last.

  • Etobicoke, ON saw an increase of +0.4 demand points from a small 9% lift in market demand.

  • Windsor, ON went up +1.5 in demand and saw a 176% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

No Demand Change

  • Brampton, ON remained at 5.4 demand points, seeing a mild increase of 2% in market demand this year versus last.

*Many of these areas experienced a surge in demand over the past year, as rental affordability along with the need for increased space for those working remotely. It's also apparent that due to this influx in demand, rent rates have inflated year-over-year in many secondary cities with 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom increases of over $100/month or more since last year.

Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-100K)

Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): September 2021 vs. August 2021

Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Demand increased by +47.7% this month versus last month in tertiary markets.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)

Upward

  • East York, ON reached 7.5 demand points, up 1.9 from last month and a 33% increase in demand.

  • Burnaby, BC saw a +1.0 point increase and experienced a 18% lift in rental market demand.

  • St. Catharines, ON experienced a +2.5 point increase and a 64% increase in demand this month versus last month.

  • Kingston, ON saw a +2.1 point increase and a 53% lift in market demand.

  • Guelph, ON moved up +2.0 points from last month and saw a 52% increase in demand.

  • Richmond, BC added +1.8 points, and saw its demand increase by 48% this month.

  • Cambridge, ON grew by +2.2 demand points, with a 65% increase in demand.

  • Sudbury, ON saw a 0.9 point increase and a 73% increase in market demand.

  • Abbotsford, BC increased by +0.7 points with a +20% increase in demand.

  • Burlington, ON increased by +1.6 points and saw a 51% increase in demand.

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): September 2021 vs. September 2020

Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is up in tertiary markets 123.5% this year versus the same time last year.

Upward

  • East York, ON saw a +3.9 point increase and a +109% increase in demand this year versus last.

  • Burnaby, BC saw a +3.8 increase and a 118% increase in rental market demand this year versus last.

  • St. Catharines, ON went up +3.7 points and saw a 142% increase in rental market demand.

  • Kingston, ON reported a +4.4 increase in demand and a 276% increase in unique prospects per property.

  • Guelph, ON reported a +3.9 point increase and a 192% increase in rental market demand this year versus last year.

  • Richmond, BC saw a +4.2 point increase and a 291% increase in rental market demand this year versus last year.

  • Cambridge, ON reported a +1.5 point increase and a 36% increase in demand.

  • Sudbury, ON saw a +1.9 point increase, and saw a 69% increase in rental demand this year versus this time last year.

  • Burlington, ON moved up +1.5 demand points, and experienced a 72% increase in demand this year versus this time last year.

Downwards

  • Abbotsford, BC decreased by -0.2 and -3% in demand from this time last year.

*Year-over-year tertiary markets continue to show strong signs of growth and migration due to more affordable housing and remote work, as well as additional infrastructure for transportation in and out of these cities.

Conclusion

The data shown in this report reveals that the month-over-month rental market experienced an increase in demand from August to September across many Canadian cities. This surge was reflected in last month's report and continues to escalate with more opportunities for migration from workers, students and travellers who have been postponing major moves. Primary cities are once again seeing an intake of renters compared to the mass exodus we saw this time last year. 

As anticipated, we have seen growth across each market, however, as affordability remains a major concern for renters, we continue to see massive growth in Secondary and Tertiary markets. As rent rates are now once again on the rise in major metros, we predict to see this continue for some time, especially given many workers are now permanently remote, giving them the option to live and work outside of cities. However, students appear to be a major contributor to rental demand in major metros.

Year-over-year, the rental market continues to experience a complete 180. A number of catalyzing factors have created this surge, such as greater mobility due to vaccinations, immigration, travel, and a more developed online rental process that has afforded renters to make decisions on their properties remotely. Additionally, the price of real estate and the unpredictability of the market over the past year has forced many to wait on home purchases, choosing to rent instead.

We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your portfolio, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.