Marketing Managers
Executive Summary
In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).
The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city, and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.
As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.
Methodology
In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months.
For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 9.1 this month, versus 5.7 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 3.4 points this month.
Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.
For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 23% in March versus February. Plus, in March 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 59% compared to January 2020.
Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. Position will vary depending on demand.
For example: This month, Oshawa, ON moved down 1 spot on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand as Surrey, BC claimed the top spot because it averaged the highest number of prospects per property this month versus last. However, year-over-year Oshawa, ON is up 15 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.
*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for March 2021 versus February 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from March 2021 versus March 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
Key Takeaways:
Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from February to March increased +17.3%, and number of available properties increased +6.7%, which resulted in a +13% increase in prospects per property.
This month each market saw a relative increase in unique prospects per property: Primary (+14.9%), Secondary (+16.7%), and Tertiary (+5.4%).
Interestingly, unique prospects per property in Secondary and Tertiary markets continue to outpace Primary markets. Secondary markets saw double (+50.4%) unique prospects per property this month versus Primary, Tertiary markets saw 29.4% more unique prospects per property versus Primary this month.
*Overall, the many Canadian cities will have experienced an increase in demand in March 2021 versus February 2021, which is relative to the increased number of days in March versus February, as well as the emerging spring market.
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is actually up 24.3% this year, versus the same time last year, however, supply is also up 34.1% with more than 3,379 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Therefore, supply continues to outpace demand in certain markets this year. Overall, the year-over-year data shows:
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Primary markets are down (-29.7%)
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Secondary markets are UP for the first time year-over-year since the beginning of the pandemic, nudging upwards (+0.8%)
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Tertiary markets are down (-26.5%)
It is still clear that the pandemic has affected rental housing demand year-over-year, especially in primary and some tertiary markets due to lockdowns, reduced travel, remote work, and migration away from major metros. As we see secondary markets begin to finally rebound during the 2021 spring market, we may continue to see a surge in demand in the summer months as vaccines roll out and vaccine passports commence.
We can hypothesize that we may begin to see the bottom of these downward trends as more people become vaccinated, however, with lockdowns, travel, and in-class schooling still at risk, especially in densely populated areas in Ontario and Quebec, we can expect COVID-19 to continue to impact the rental market in these locations until residents can move around more comfortably.
Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand
*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for March 2021 versus Feb 2021
Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month
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Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced an increase in demand this month, with only a few experiencing a decline in demand. This is likely attributed to a) March being 3-days longer than February b) Normal seasonal trends related to higher search volume in the spring market.
Upwards
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Surrey, BC moved up 1 spot, increased demand by +4.5 and experienced a +31% increase in prospects per property.
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Oshawa, ON moved down 1 spot, but saw an increase in demand of +3.4, and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS entered the top 50 list with over 20 available properties, and saw an increase in demand of +2.4 in demand, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Peterborough, ON moved up 1 spot, and saw an increase of +2.0 in demand, and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.
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North Vancouver, BC moved up 10 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +1.0, and a 38% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Halifax, NS moved down 5 spots, but saw an increase in demand of +1.2, and a 29% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Brantford, ON moved down 2 spots, but saw an increase in demand of +1.3, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.
- Scarborough, ON moved up 2 spots, and experienced a +1.2 increase in demand, and a 25% increase in prospects per property.
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Burlington, ON moved up 7 spots, and saw a +0.9 increase in demand, and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Vancouver, BC moved up 5 spots, increasing demand by +0.9, and unique prospects per property by 23%.
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Victoria, BC moved up 5 spots, increased demand by +0.8, and unique prospects per property by 22%.
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Sherwood Park, AB moved up 3 spots this month, increasing demand by +0.8 and was up 29% unique prospects per property.
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West Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots, increased demand by +0.7, and prospects per property increased by 36%.
No Demand Change
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Gatineau, QC entered the list as it saw over 20 properties on the platform this month, however, although demand remained the same (5.5), it saw a 19% decrease in prospects per property due to the increase in supply in this market.
Downwards
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Niagara Falls, ON moved down 16 spots and saw a -0.1 decline in demand, and a -22% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
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Quebec City, QC moved down 15 spots, and reduced demand by -0.1, while experiencing a drop of -26% in unique prospects per property.
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St. Catharines, ON moved down 6 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.8 points, and saw a -27% decrease in unique prospects per property.
Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): March 2021 vs. Feb 2021
Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)
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Surrey, BC switched spots to capture the #1 spot this month, and saw demand increase by +4.5 points, with a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Oshawa, ON moved down 1 spot but increased +3.4 in demand points, and 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS entered the top 10 list this month and saw a +2.4 increase in demand, and 20% increase in prospects per property.
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Gatineau, QC also entered the top 10 list, seeing similar month-over-month demand (5.5), however due to an increase in properties saw a 19% decrease in prospects per property.
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Peterborough, ON moved up 1 spot, increasing +2.0 demand points, and saw a 24% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
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Abbotsford, BC moved down 3 spots, but saw a +1.3 increase in demand, and a 10% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
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Langley, BC entered the top 10 list this month, and saw a +1.1 increase in demand, an increase of 5% in unique prospects per property.
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Kitchener, ON moved down 1 spot, but increased demand by +1.1 points, and unique prospects per property by 9%
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Brampton, ON moved down 5 spots, and although it increased demand by +0.6, it saw a 6% decrease in unique prospects per property due to a 10% increase of available properties.
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Burnaby, BC moved down 1 spot, and saw a +1.2 increase in demand, and a 16% in unique prospects per property.
*Note: The increase in properties in Gatineau, QC, and Brampton, ON was disproportionate to the increase in prospects, resulting in a rate of change not appearing to be uniform.
Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): March 2021 vs. March 2020
Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)
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Surrey, BC moved up 1 spot this year, and increased demand by +1.8 points, and experienced an increase of 4% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
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Oshawa, ON moved up 15 spots from this time last year, and increased demand by +5.9 points, and increased 59% year-over-year in unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS moved up 28 spots this year, and increased demand by +4.8 points, and experienced an increase of 65% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
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Gatineau, QC moved down 4 spots this year, decreasing demand by -4.5, and saw a 53% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Peterborough, ON moved up 22 spots from last year, and saw an increase of +2.9 points, and a 48% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Abbotsford, BC moved up 8 spots this year, increased demand by +1.6 points versus this time last year, and saw an increase of 22% in unique prospects per property.
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Langley, BC moved up 27 spots, increased demand by +2.6 points, and saw an increase of 52% in unique prospects per property.
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Kitchener, ON remained in the same position, but decreased demand by -0.3, and decreased unique prospects per property by 20% this year versus last year this time.
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Brampton, ON moved down 5 spots on the list, and saw demand decrease by -2.5 points, and decrease 47% in unique prospects per property.
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Burnaby, BC moved up 13 spots, and saw demand increase by 1.3 points, with an increase of 22% in unique prospects per property.
*It appears the most notable increase in demand is found in Western and Eastern Canada whereas Ontario (besides Oshawa, ON) and Quebec continue to see demand decrease in certain pockets. This may be due to increasing COVID cases and continued lockdowns associated with these areas preventing renter mobilization and postponed renter turnover and delayed move-in and out dates.
An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets
In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets:
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Primary (Populations Over 600K)
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Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)
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Tertiary (Populations Between 235-175K).
Here we will gain a deeper perspective on-demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.
Key Takeaways:
Month-Over-Month (M/M)
Primary: Supply increased 6.7% and demand increased by 18%.
Secondary: Supply increased 1.8% and demand increased 6.7%.
Tertiary: Supply increased 5.7% and demand increased 5.4%.
Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)
Primary: Supply increased 38.5% and demand decreased 29.7%.
Secondary: Supply increased 28.6% this year and demand increased 0.8%.
Tertiary: Supply increased 33.2% this year and demand decreased 26.5%.
Primary Markets (Populations >600K)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): March 2021 vs. Feb 2021
Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month
*Demand in primary markets saw its first significant increase since the start of the pandemic. Overall supply increased 6.7% in primary markets this month, while demand increased by 18% this month versus last month, indicating a healthy rebound in demand month-over-month.
Upward
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North York, ON increased +1.2 demand points and experienced a +14% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Scarborough, ON saw a +1.2 increase in demand, and a 25% increase in prospects per property.
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Vancouver, BC went up +0.9 in demand points, and saw an increase of 23% in unique prospects per property.
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Mississauga, ON saw a +0.8 increase in demand, and a 12% lift in unique prospects per property.
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Calgary, AB saw a +0.4 increase in demand, and saw a 3% bump in unique prospects per property.
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Ottawa, ON increased +0.6 demand points, and saw a 19% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Winnipeg, MB experienced a +0.4 increase in demand, and saw a 11% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Toronto, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and experienced a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Edmonton, AB increased demand by +0.3 and experienced a 8% increase in unique prospects per property.
*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from February to March are showing rebound potential, which may be attributed to normal seasonal shifts in demand during the spring months, as well as the rollout of vaccinations in these high-risk cities. As we said last month, we may begin to see primary markets reemerge as vaccines become more widespread and borders and travel reopens.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): March 2021 vs. March 2020
Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, total unique prospects per property decreased 29.7% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up 38.5% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.
*Due to increased vacancies/availability, supply continues to outpace demand in the majority of primary markets this year versus the same time last year.
Upward
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Scarborough, ON has experienced a +1.0 increase in demand from this time last year and has moved up 4 spots in primary markets, and an increase of 22% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
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Calgary, AB moved up 3 spots from this time last year, and saw a slight -0.1 increase in demand, despite a 6% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Winnipeg, ON has seen a +0.3 increase in demand as well as a 7% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
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Edmonton, ON saw a +0.1 increase in demand, although a 8% decline in unique prospects per property due to increased supply.
Downward
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North York, ON remained at the top of the primary market list, but decreased demand by -1.4 points, and saw a decrease of 39% in unique prospects per property.
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Vancouver, BC experienced a -0.1 decrease in demand and a 12% decrease in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
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Mississauga, ON had a -0.4 point decrease in demand, and a 29% decline in unique prospects per property.
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Ottawa, ON decreased by -0.5 in demand, and saw a 33% decline in unique prospects per property from last year.
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Toronto, ON decreased demand by -0.4 points and saw a 32% decline in unique prospects per property.
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Montreal, QC reduced demand by -2.2, and has seen a drastic decline of 75% in unique prospects per property.
*Certain primary cities such as Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB, and Edmonton, AB continue to be less impacted by the effects of COVID-19 on year-over-year demand due to less affected populations and spacious more affordable rental housing conditions. As mentioned last month, Scarborough, ON is also seeing demand increase year-over-year, likely due to migration away from Toronto into more affordable suburbs due to remote work.
*Major metros such as Toronto, ON and Montreal, QC continue to see fluctuating case numbers related to COVID-19, therefore it is not surprising that cities in these regions continue to see a downward trend in demand year-over-year. Given that many workers have migrated away from these areas for the foreseeable future, a sudden resurgence in demand is unlikely until borders and travel reopen.
Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)
Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): March 2021 vs. Feb 2021
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Secondary markets saw an increase of +16.7% prospects per property this month, with supply increasing slightly by +1.8% in these areas.
Upwards
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Surrey, BC increased demand by +4.5 points, and saw a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Oshawa, ON saw an increase of +3.4 in demand, and an increase of 23% in unique prospects per property.
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Brampton, ON saw an increase of +0.6 in demand, but due to an increase in supply, saw a 6% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
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Halifax, NS experienced a +1.6 increase in demand, and a 29% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Hamilton, ON increased demand by +0.7 and saw a 6% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
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Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.8 in demand, and a 22% increase in unique prospects per property.
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London, ON reported a +0.7 increase in demand and 11% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
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Windsor, ON experienced an increase of +0.6 demand points, and a 7% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
Downward
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Quebec City, QC saw demand decrease demand by -0.1 this month and has seen a decrease of 26% in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
Canadian Cities – Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): March 2021 vs. March 2020
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, unique prospects per property are up 0.8% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up 28.6% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.
Upward
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Surrey, BC increased demand by +1.2 and unique prospects per property by 4% this year versus last.
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Oshawa, ON increased demand by +5.9 points and 59% unique prospects per property this year versus last year.
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Victoria, BC experienced a +0.9 increase in demand and 18% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.
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London, ON saw a +0.6 increase in demand and a 12% increase in prospects per property.
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Windsor, ON had a +0.7 increase in demand, and saw a 18% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
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Quebec City, QC experienced a slight increase of +0.1 in demand but a 11% decrease in unique prospects per property due to an increase in supply.
Downward
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Brampton, ON decreased in demand by -2.5 points, and saw a decline in unique prospects per property by 47% this year versus last.
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Halifax, NS saw a -0.2 point decrease in demand and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Hamilton, ON decreased in demand by -0.4 points this year and experienced a -24% decline in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Etobicoke, ON saw a decrease of +1.0 in demand and a 38% decrease in unique prospects per property.
*The year-over-year demand in secondary markets is relative as we move into the spring months, however, Ontario and Quebec cities with higher populations continue to be the most affected and are likely attributed to delayed vaccinations in these regions and rising COVID cases.
Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-175K)
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): March 2021 vs. Feb 2021
Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Overall, tertiary markets have seen a lift in month-over-month demand across most cities in these markets.
*Unique prospects per property increased by 5.4% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with an increase of 5.7% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)
Upward
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Kitchener, ON increased by +1.1 in demand this month and experienced a 9% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Burnaby, BC saw a +1.3 jump in demand and saw a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Barrie, ON experienced a +1.1 point increase in demand and a 19% increase in prospects per property.
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Oakville, ON increased demand by +1.1 points this month versus last month and experienced a 12% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Burlington, ON went up +0.9 in demand, and saw a 24% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Nepean, ON increased demand by +0.4 points and saw an increase of 1% in unique prospects per property this month.
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Richmond, BC experienced a +0.6 increase in demand points and an 10% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Saskatoon, SK also increased demand by +0.4 and increased by 6% in unique prospects per property this month.
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Regina, SK saw an increase of 0.2 in demand and 2% in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
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Gatineau, QC entered the list this month and although remained in demand, saw a decrease of 19% in unique prospects per property due to a 46% increase in supply.
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): March 2021 vs. March 2020
Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year
*Due to an increase in supply in certain areas, some tertiary markets are seeing weakened demand this year versus last year, while others, mainly those with lower population numbers, outside of Ontario and Quebec, are showing growth in demand this year versus last year.
*Overall, total unique prospects per property are down 26.5% this year versus the same time last year, and a number of properties are up 33.2% this year versus the same time last year.
Upward
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Burnaby, BC increased demand by +1.4 points and 22% unique prospects per property from this time last year.
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Barrie, ON saw a +1.6 increase in demand and a 49% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
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Burlington, ON increased demand by +0.7 demand points, and saw a 19% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Richmond, BC went up +0.7 demand points and 23% in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Saskatoon, SK increased its demand by +0.3 points and unique prospects per property by 10% this year versus the same time last year.
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Regina, SK increased demand by +0.2 and went up 3% in unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.
Downward
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Kitchener, ON decreased demand by -0.3 points and unique prospects per property by 20% this year versus last year.
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Oakville, ON experienced a -0.1 decrease in demand, and a 17% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Nepean, ON experienced a -4.6 point decline in demand, and a 73% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
Conclusion
The data shown in this report show that the spring 2021 rental market is reporting relatively healthy demand numbers, and has shown month-over-month growth across the majority of Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary cities despite the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns. However, next month's report will show a much clearer picture of the spring 2021 market performance.
Additionally, year-over-year demand continues to show cracks in certain cities, especially in Ontario and Quebec. Primary markets continue to indicate declining demand, and depending on population, some secondary and tertiary markets continue to report a decrease in year-over-year demand. However, in some secondary and tertiary markets, the growth is extreme due to migration away from city centers as remote working continues to unfold.
We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.
