Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: July 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Welland, ON received a demand score of 5.5 this month, versus 5.1 last month. Therefore, Welland experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 0.4 points this month.

Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.

For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Welland, ON went up 7% in June versus May. In June 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Welland, ON have gone up 2% compared to June 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Dartmouth, NS moved up 1 spot on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Dartmouth, NS is up 10 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for May 2021 versus April 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from May 2021 versus May 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.

Key Takeaways:

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from May to June increased by 3%, while the number of properties increased marginally by 1.8% this month versus last month.

• Primary: Supply increased +2.3%, and demand decreased -3.6%.

• Secondary: Supply increased +4.6% and demand decreased -1.4%.

• Tertiary: Supply increased +4.1% and demand increased -5.5%.

The slight drop in demand is likely due to seasonality, as we see a slow down in rental demand leading into the summer months, coupled with a slight increase in supply.

Secondary markets saw 50.7% more unique prospects per property this month versus primary markets, and tertiary markets saw 29.3% more unique prospects per property versus primary markets this month.

*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced a slight decrease in demand in June 2021 versus May 2021, which is normal to seasonal trends during this time of year. COVID-related lockdowns continued in many Canadian cities throughout June, and likely suppressed any major surges in rental demand expected during this time. As reopening begins in many major cities in mid-July, we may begin to see increasing demand reemerge.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up 20.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada continues to flourish. However, supply is up 23.2% with more than 2,255 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Overall, the year-over-year (June '21 vs June '20) data shows:

• Primary: Supply is up +26.8%, and demand decreased by -15.4%.

• Secondary: Supply is up +19.5%, and demand is down -8.5%.

• Tertiary: Supply is up +15.2%, demand is down -16.5%.

The year-over-year rental market analysis for June shows that increased rental supply, in addition to reduced travel in and out of province and country, continues to impact rental demand in many Canadian cities. As second doses continue to roll out across the country, and borders reopen we may see a greater surge in demand leading into the late summer and fall months.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for June 2021 versus May 2021

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

• Overall, the majority of Canadian cities showed month-over-month stability despite continued lockdowns due to the pandemic. A slight decline at the start of the summer season is expected after a strong spring market. 

Upwards

• Peterborough, ON moved into the top 50 with more than 20 properties available, increased demand by +0.8, and experienced a 12% increase in prospects per property.

• Nanaimo, BC moved up 5 spots and saw an increase in demand of +0.9 and a 14% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Cambridge, ON entered the top 50 list with more than 20 properties available and saw an increase of +0.9 in demand and a 28% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Kingston, ON moved up 7 spots and saw an increase of +0.6 in demand and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Guelph, ON moved up 7 spots and saw an increase in demand of +0.8 and a 29% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Lethbridge, AB moved up 4 spots, increased demand by +0.5, and saw a 25% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Quebec City, QC reentered the top 50 list, after being pushed down last month, experiencing an increase in demand of +0.1, and a 12% increase in unique prospects per property.

*Peterborough, ON, Langley, BC, and Cambridge, ON all entered the list this month as they hit a threshold of over 20 rental properties.

No Demand Change

• Abbotsford, BC moved up 4 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 4.2 points, and a slight 0.5% increase in prospects per property.

• Richmond, BC moved up 4 spots, and stayed at 3.8 demand points, with a slight 1% decline in unique prospects per property.

• Kamloops, BC moved up 2 spots, keeping steady at 3.6 in demand points, and a 0.5% uptick in prospects per property.

• North Vancouver, BC moved up 1 spot and held at 3.5 in demand with no change in unique prospects per property.

• Ottawa, ON moved down 6 spots, remaining at 1.9 demand points, and saw a 4% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• West Vancouver, BC moved down 4 spots on the list, but held steady at 1.6 demand points, and up 4% in unique prospects per property.

• Camrose, AB moved up 1 spot on the list, holding at 1.1 demand points, and saw a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Langley, BC entered the top 50 after with more than 20 properties available, however, due to increased supply experienced a -2.4 decline in demand, and a 35% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Kitchener, ON moved down 4 spots, saw a -0.8 reduction in demand, while experiencing a 16% drop in unique prospects per property.

• New Westminster, BC moved down 4 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.8 points, and saw an 18% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Burnaby, BC moved down 1 spot, decreased demand by -0.5 points and -11% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Coquitlam, BC dropped 4 spots this month, reducing demand by -1.0 points, and a 21% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Waterloo, ON went down 9 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.8, and saw a 22% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Napean, ON entered the list due to an increase of over 20 available properties, experienced a -0.7 point decline in demand and a 15% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Hamilton, ON moved down 5 spots, decreased demand by -0.5, and saw a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Sudbury, ON dropped 5 spots, saw a -0.4 point decline in demand and an 11% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a -0.7 decrease in demand and a 21% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Scarborough, ON experienced a -0.4 decrease in demand and saw a -13% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Red Deer, AB went down 4 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.4, and saw a 22% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Lloydminster, BC moved down 3 spots, saw a -0.2 point decline in demand and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• Sarnia, ON entered the top 50 this month, despite experiencing a -0.1 point decline in demand and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): June 2021 vs. May 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Surrey, BC remained in the top spot, and increased +0.1 in demand, and saw a 1% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

2. Oshawa, ON also stayed in the second spot, with a +0.4 increase in demand, experiencing a +6% boost in unique prospects per property.

3. Peterborough, ON reentered the top 50 list, at the 3rd spot this month 1, with a +0.8 increase in demand and a 12% increase in prospects per property.

4. Welland, ON moved up 1 spot, increased demand by +0.4, and experienced a 7% increase in unique prospects per property.

5. Nanaimo, BC moved up 5 spots on the list, experiencing a +0.9 increase in demand, and a 14% increase in prospects per property.

6. Brampton, ON stayed in 6th position, increasing demand by +0.5 points, and an 8% increase in unique prospects per property.

7. Langley, BC entered the list as they met the 20 property threshold, however, due to increased supply, their demand dropped 2.4 points and decreased by -35% in unique prospects per property for the month.

8. Abbotsford, BC moved up 4 spots, but remained at 4.2 demand points and saw a slight +0.5% increase in unique prospects per property.

9. East York, ON moved up 6 spots, increasing demand by +0.2, and unique prospects per property by 5%

10.  Halifax, NS moved up 4 spots and saw a +0.1 increase in demand and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property. 

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in June 2021 versus May 2021 came from Nanaimo, BC, Peterborough, ON, and East York, ON.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): June 2021 vs. June 2020

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

1. Surrey, BC moved up 1 spot, increasing demand by +0.3 year-over-year, and experienced an increase of +4% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.

2. Oshawa, ON moved up 1 spot from this time last year, and increased demand by +0.9 points, and increased 12% year-over-year in unique prospects per property.

3. Peterborough, ON entered the list, and increased demand by +2.2 points, and experienced an increase of 38% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.

4. Welland, ON entered the list, increased demand by +0.1, and saw a 2% increase in unique prospects per property compared to this time last year.

5. Nanaimo, BC moved up 32 spots this year, with demand increasing by +1.6 points, and an increase in unique prospects per property by 64% this year versus last year this time.

6. Brampton, ON moved down 5 spots on the list and saw demand decrease by +2.2 points and a decrease of 30% in unique prospects per property.

7. Langley, BC entered the list and saw an increase of +1.1 points and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property compared to this time last year.

8. Abbotsford, BC moved down 1 spot this year, decreased demand by +1.0 points, and saw a decrease of 19% unique prospects per property.

9. East York, ON moved up 4 spots on the list, and saw demand increase by +0.1, and increased 2% in unique prospects per property.

10.  Halifax, NS moved up 9 spots, increased demand by +1.1 points, and saw an increase of 28% in unique prospects per property.

*The most notable increase in demand year-over-year continues to be in Secondary and Tertiary Canadian cities. There appears to be a drastic increase in demand where affordability and additional space are available for renters. This is likely due to a long-term commitment by many businesses to allow for remote work, giving renters the freedom to move to areas that have lower rent rates but additional living and working space.

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

1. Primary (Populations Over 600K)

2. Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)

3. Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K).

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways:

Month-Over-Month (M/M)

• Primary: Supply increased +2.3%, and demand decreased -3.6%.

• Secondary: Supply increased +4.6% and demand decreased -1.4%.

• Tertiary: Supply increased +4.1% and demand increased -5.5%.

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)

• Primary: Supply is up +26.8%, and demand decreased -15.4%.

• Secondary: Supply is up +19.5%, and demand is down -8.5%.

• Tertiary: Supply is up +15.2%, demand is down -16.5%.

Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): June 2021 vs. May 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Demand in primary markets increased again this month versus last month.

Overall demand decreased by -3.6% in primary markets this month, while supply increased by +2.3% this month versus last month. This is the first time in two months that primary market demand has decreased, however slightly, and is typical for early summer.

Upward

• North York, ON saw a +0.1 increase in demand and a 5% increase in prospects per property.

• Toronto, ON saw a +0.2 increase in demand and a 6% lift in unique prospects per property.

• Edmonton, AB went up +0.1 demand points and saw an increase of 3% in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Mississauga, ON remained steady at 2.7 demand points and saw a slight 3% decrease in unique prospects per property due to an increase in supply distribution.

• Ottawa, ON held steady at 1.9 demand points and saw a 4% decrease in unique prospects per property due to the increase in supply.

Downwards

• Vancouver, BC declined -0.1 in demand and experienced a -4% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Scarborough, ON experienced a -0.4 decrease in demand and saw a -13% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Calgary, AB saw a -0.1 decline in demand and experienced a -4% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB decreased by -0.1 in demand and experienced a -9% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Montreal, QC declined by -0.1 demand points and experienced a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from May to June slowed, and saw a slight decrease in demand overall, which may be attributed to normal seasonal shifts as well as continued lockdowns in many major Canadian cities.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): June 2021 vs. June 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total demand decreased -15.4% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up 26.8% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC moved up 2 spots, experiencing a +0.7 increase in demand and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Calgary, AB moved up 1 spot from this time last year and saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 14% increase in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Edmonton, AB moved up 1 spot, but remained at 1.2 demand points and saw a slight 2% decrease in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

Downward

• North York, ON moved to the top of the list but saw a -0.7 reduction in demand and a -19% decrease in unique prospects per property, this is due to a 42.8% year-over-year increase in supply in this area, causing demand to be more thinly distributed.

• Scarborough, ON has experienced a -1.2 decrease in demand from this time last year and a decrease of 30% in unique prospects per property year-over-year, which can also be attributed to a 41.8% increase in supply.

• Mississauga, ON moved down 1 spot, had a -0.6 point decrease in demand, and a 20% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Ottawa, ON decreased by -0.3 in demand and saw a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property from last year.

• Toronto, ON decreased demand by -0.1 points and saw an 11% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB saw a -0.1 decrease in demand and an 8% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Montreal, QC reduced demand by -1.3 and has seen a drastic decline of 57% in unique prospects per property.

*The majority of primary cities in Ontario as well as Montreal, QC experienced a decrease in demand in June, likely attributed to both seasonality and continued lockdown measures across these major cities. Primary cities in Western provinces such as Vancouver, BC, and Calgary, AB, continue to see rental demand growth year-over-year, meanwhile, Winnipeg, MB, and Edmonton, AB have remained relatively steady year-over-year.

Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): June 2021 vs. May 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw a decrease of -1.4% prospects per property this month, with supply slightly increasing by +4.6% in these areas. 

Upwards

• Surrey, BC increased demand by +0.1 and saw a 1% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Oshawa, ON saw an increase of +0.4 demand points and an increase of 6% in unique prospects per property.

• Brampton, ON saw an increase of +0.5 in demand and increased prospects per property by 8%.

• Halifax, NS experienced a +0.1 increase in demand and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.3 in demand and a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.

• London, ON reported a +0.2 increase in demand and a 9% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.

Downwards

• Kitchener, ON saw a decrease of -0.8 in demand and saw a 16% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Hamilton, ON decreased demand by -0.5 and saw a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a -0.7 decrease in demand and a 21% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Windsor, ON experienced a decrease of -0.1 demand, and a 7% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

*Overall, secondary markets saw a minor decrease in demand, however, given the increase in supply, most secondary cities are still seeing strong demand this month. Last month we saw a slight market correction from the surge in demand over the past year in these cities, which appears to have plateaued this month.

Canadian Cities – Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): June 2021 vs. June 2020

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is down 8.5% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up 19.5% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.

Upward

• Surrey, BC increased demand by +0.3 points and 3% in unique prospects per property this year versus last year.

• Oshawa, ON increased demand by +0.9 points and 12% in unique prospects per property this year versus last year.

• Halifax, NS saw a +1.1 point increase in demand and an 18% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Victoria, BC experienced a +0.9 point increase in demand and a 32% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year, as both supply and demand increased exponentially over the last year.

• Windsor, ON experienced a 0.2 increase in demand and saw a 6% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

No Demand Change

• London, ON remained at 2.5 demand points and saw no change in unique prospects per property.

Downward

• Brampton, ON decreased demand by -2.2 points, and saw a decrease in unique prospects per property by 30% this year versus last.

• Kitchener, ON saw a -1.2 point decrease in demand and a 23% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Hamilton, ON decreased demand by -0.8 points this year and experienced a 19% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a decrease of -3.0 demand points and a 52% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*Year-over-year demand in secondary markets is beginning to cool in some areas, especially those in Ontario, which may be attributed to the increase in rent rates due to high demand in these cities. Over the coming months, as second doses are administered, we will gain more perspective of whether renters will continue to drive demand in secondary markets or return to city centers.

Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-130K)

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): June 2021 vs. May 2021

Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Overall, tertiary markets continue to see growing month-over-month demand across most cities in these markets.

*Unique prospects per property decreased by -5.5% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with an increase of +4.1% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)

Upward

• St. Catharines, ON experienced a +0.3 increase in demand points and a 9% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Saskatoon, SK saw a +0.1 increase in demand and a 3% increase in prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Abbotsford, BC remained at 4.2 demand points and experienced no change in prospects per property.

• Richmond, BC stayed at 3.8 demand points and saw a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Regina, SK also stayed at 1.0 demand and saw a slight 1% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

Downward

• Burnaby, BC decreased demand by -0.5 this month and experienced a 12% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Burlington, ON reduced demand by -0.3 demand points and saw an 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Sudbury, ON saw a -0.4 decrease in demand and an 11% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Oakville, ON decreased demand by -0.3 points this month versus last month and experienced a 9% decrease in unique prospects per property.
  
  

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): June 2021 vs. June 2020

Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, unique prospects per property is down 16.5% this year versus the same time last year, and a number of properties are up 15.2% this year versus the same time last year.

Upward

• Richmond, BC saw a +2.4 increase in demand and a 61% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• St. Catharines, ON experienced an increase of +0.7 in demand and a 17% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Sudbury, ON increased demand by +0.4 demand points, and saw a 15% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

• Saskatoon, SK experienced a +0.2 increase in demand and a 9% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Regina, SK increased demand by +0.1 and went up 3% in unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.

No Demand Change

• Burlington, ON remained at 3.0 demand points and experienced a slight 1% decrease in demand this year versus this time last year.

Downward

• Abbotsford, BC decreased demand by -1.0 points and -19% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Burnaby, BC decreased demand by -1.0 points and -21% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Napean, ON experienced a -4.5 point decline in demand and a 53% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• Oakville, ON saw a -2.6 point decline in demand and a 48% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

*Napean, ON entered the list with 20 properties, doubling their year-over-year supply, resulting in a thinner distribution of unique prospects per property.

Conclusion

The data shown in this report reveals that the 2021 early summer rental market experienced a slight decrease in demand from May to June across many Canadian cities however, due to seasonality, reduced travel, and continued lockdowns across many cities, rental demand is still being suppressed across Canada.

As anticipated, with second doses continuing to roll out across the country, we have seen greater market stability, especially in Primary markets. As rent rates have mostly flattened in major metros, motivated renters willing to take the leap are able to lock in their leases at more affordable rates. However, as reopenings continue into the mid-summer months, and many employers notify workers of a return to the office, we'll gain a better perspective of whether there will be a strong return to major metros, or if demand will continue to shift in favour of secondary and even tertiary markets.

We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.