Marketing Managers
Executive Summary
In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).
The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.
As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.
Methodology
In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months.
For example: Dartmouth, NS received a demand score of 6.0 this month, versus 6.8 last month. Therefore, Dartmouth experienced a decrease in demand (unique prospects per property) by 0.8 points this month.
Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.
For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Dartmouth, NS went down 12% in April versus March. But in April 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Dartmouth, NS have gone up 52% compared to April 2020.
Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.
For example: This month, Dartmouth, NS moved down 1 spot on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Dartmouth, NS is up 13 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.
*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for April 2021 versus March 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from April 2021 versus April 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
Key Takeaways:
Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from March to April increased by 4%, however, the number of properties dropped by 2.75% this month versus last month, resulting in a 9.9% increase in average prospects per property.
This month each market saw a relative increase in unique prospects per property: Primary (+8.1%), Secondary (+6.3%), and Tertiary (+17.9%).
Interestingly, unique prospects per property in Secondary and Tertiary markets continue to outpace Primary markets. Secondary markets saw nearly double (+49.4%) unique prospects per property this month versus Primary. Tertiary markets saw 35.2% more unique prospects per property versus Primary this month.
*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities will have experienced an increase in demand in April 2021 versus March 2021, which is also relative to normal seasonal trends.
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up 39.8% this year versus the same time last year, while overall supply is up 28.5% with more than 2,683 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Overall, the year-over-year data shows:
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Primary market demand is up (+0.2%), for the first time year-over-year since the beginning of the pandemic
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Secondary market demand is up (+22.8%)
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Tertiary market demand is up (+7.2%)
The spring rental market has shown a breakthrough for secondary markets, as they continue to outperform year-over-year since the beginning of the pandemic. Tertiary markets are also showing high demand going into the spring months. Although primary markets have yet to experience significant demand growth, the data indicates that there are signs of a slow return as vaccines roll out, travel reopens, and immigration commences, we may see a greater surge in demand in certain primary markets later in the year.
Last month, we hypothesized that we may be reaching the bottom of the downward rental market trends. The data indicates this may be the case in secondary and tertiary markets, however, next month will provide a clearer year-over-year analysis of whether markets are only temporarily trending upwards, or if we are trending towards pre-COVID demand numbers.
As for primary market trends; lockdowns, travel restrictions, and in-class schooling is still at risk, especially in densely populated areas in Ontario and Quebec, therefore we can expect to see these regions continue to be impacted until residents can move around more comfortably.
Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand
*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for April 2021 versus March 2021
Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month
Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced an increase in demand this month, with only a few experiencing a decline in demand. This is likely attributed to normal seasonal trends related to higher search volume in the spring market. Despite COVID-related lockdowns trends show that as vaccinations continue to roll out, Canadians are still actively looking for rentals.
Upwards
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Gatineau, QC moved up 1 spot, increased demand by +2.1, and experienced a 28% increase in prospects per property.
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Brampton, ON moved up 3 spots, saw an increase in demand of +1.5, and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Welland, ON entered the top 10 list, coming in at the 9th spot, and saw an increase in demand of +1.1, and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Halifax, NS moved up 7 spots and saw an increase of +1.1 in demand and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Coquitlam, BC moved up 7 spots and saw an increase in demand of +1.1 and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.
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New Westminster, BC moved up 1 spot, increased demand by +0.7, and saw an 18% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Nepean, ON moved up 15 spots, experienced an increase in demand of +1.5, and a 41% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Hamilton, ON moved up 1 spot and experienced a +0.6 increase in demand and an 18% increase in prospects per property.
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Etobicoke, ON moved up 2 spots and saw a +0.7 increase in demand and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Burlington, ON moved up 3 spots, increasing demand by +0.9, and unique prospects per property by 26%.
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Richmond, BC moved up 11 spots, increased demand by +0.9, and unique prospects per property by 32%.
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West Vancouver, BC moved up 7 spots this month, increasing demand by +0.4 and was up 23% unique prospects per property.
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Saint John, NB moved up 6 spots, and increased demand by +0.4, and saw a 22% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Lethbridge, AB entered the top 50, increasing demand by +0.3, and prospects per property increased by 20%.
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Toronto, ON moved up 3 spots this month, increasing demand by +0.2, and up 11% prospects per property.
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Lloydminster, AB entered the list this month, with an increased demand of +0.2 and up 16% prospects per property.
No Demand Change
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Kingston, ON moved down 3 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 2.4 points, and a slight 2% increase in prospects per property.
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St. John's, NFLD moved down 1 spot, and stayed at 1.8 in demand, with a slight 1% decline in unique prospects per property.
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Saskatoon, SK moved up 3 spots, keeping steady at 1.4 in demand points, and a 3% uptick in prospects per property.
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Montreal, QC moved up 1 point and held at 1.3 in demand with a slight 5% decline in unique prospects per property.
Downwards
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Surrey, BC remained in the top spot, despite a -1.0 decline in demand, and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
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Oshawa, ON also stayed in the second spot, with a -0.6 reduction in demand, while experiencing a slight drop of 7% unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS moved down 1 spot this month, reduced demand by -0.8 points, and saw a 12% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Burnaby, BC dropped 9 spots this month, reducing demand by -0.2 points, and a slight 5% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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North Vancouver, BC went down 6 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.1, and saw a 2% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Quebec City, QC moved down 3 spots, saw a -0.2 decrease in demand, and a 15% decline in unique prospects per property.
Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): April 2021 vs. March 2021
Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)
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Surrey, BC remained in the top spot, despite a -1.0 decline in demand, and a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
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Oshawa, ON also stayed in the second spot, with a -0.6 reduction in demand, while experiencing a slight drop of 7% unique prospects per property.
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Gatineau, QC moved up 1 spot this move, seeing +2.1 growth in demand, and an increase of 28% unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS moved down 1 spot in the top 10 list this month and saw a -0.8 decrease in demand and a 12% decrease in prospects per property.
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Abbotsford, BC moved up 1 spot, saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 13% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
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Brampton, ON moved up 3 spots, and increased demand by +1.5 points, and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Peterborough, ON moved down 2 spots, but increased +0.2 demand points, and saw a 4% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.
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Langley, BC moved down 1 spot but saw a +1.5 increase in demand and an increase of 10% unique prospects per property.
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Welland, ON moved up 3 spots, increasing demand by +1.1 points, and unique prospects per property by 21%.
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Halifax, NS moved up 7 spots and saw a +1.1 increase in demand and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
Overall, the top 10 cities in April 2021 versus March 2021 were relatively similar, and the most drastic fluctuations came from Gatineau, QC, Brampton, ON, Welland, ON, and Halifax, NS, which all saw a decrease in supply this month versus last month, and therefore increasing unique prospects per property.
Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): April 2021 vs. April 2020?
Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)
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Surrey, BC moved up 3 spots this year, and increased demand by +2.6 points, and experienced an increase of 29% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
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Oshawa, ON moved up 6 spots from this time last year, and increased demand by +4.4 points, and increased 52% year-over-year in unique prospects per property.
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Gatineau, QC moved down 2 spots this year, but increased demand by +0.3, and saw a 4% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Dartmouth, NS moved up 13 spots this year, and increased demand by +3.1 points, and experienced an increase of 52% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.
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Abbotsford, BC moved up 4 spots this year, increased demand by +1.5 points versus this time last year, and saw an increase of 28% in unique prospects per property.
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Brampton, ON moved down 2 spots on the list, and saw demand increase by +0.2 points, and increase 1% in unique prospects per property.
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Peterborough, ON moved up 16 spots from last year and saw an increase of +2.8 points and a 52% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Langley, BC moved up 21 spots, increased demand by +2.8 points, and saw an increase of 56% in unique prospects per property.
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Welland, ON moved up 5 spots this year, with demand increasing by 1.8 points, and an increase in unique prospects per property by 36% this year versus last year this time.
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Halifax, NS moved up 21 spots, and saw demand increase by 2.6 points, with an increase of 56% in unique prospects per property.
*It appears the most notable increase in demand is in the majority of Secondary and Tertiary Canadian cities. There appears to be a drastic increase in demand where affordability and additional space are available for renters. This is likely due to a long-term commitment by many businesses to allow for remote work, as well as virtual schooling, meaning children and parents are living and working together 24/7, making living and working space a greater priority
An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets
In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets:
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Primary (Populations Over 600K)
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Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)
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Tertiary (Populations Between 235-175K).
Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.
Key Takeaways:
Month-Over-Month (M/M)
Primary: Supply decreased 2.9% and demand increased by 8.1%.
Secondary: Supply decreased 5.2% and demand increased 6.3%.
Tertiary: Supply decreased 1.2% and demand increased 17.9%.
Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)
Primary: Supply increased 33.2% and demand increased 0.2%.
Secondary: Supply increased 26.9% this year and demand increased 22.8%.
Tertiary: Supply increased 38.1% this year and demand increased 7.2%.
Primary Markets (Populations >600K)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): April 2021 vs. March 2021
Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month
*Demand in primary markets saw another significant increase in demand since the start of the pandemic. Overall supply decreased 2.9% in primary markets this month, while demand increased by 8.1% this month versus last month, indicating that vacancies are beginning to decrease and rent rates in these areas may be able to creep upwards into the latter part of the year.
Upward
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Scarborough, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 10% increase in prospects per property.
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Mississauga, ON saw a +0.3 increase in demand and a 12% lift in unique prospects per property.
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Vancouver, BC moved up +0.2 demand points and saw an increase of 7% in unique prospects per property.
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Calgary, AB saw a +0.4 increase in demand and saw a 19% bump in unique prospects per property.
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Ottawa, ON increased +0.1 demand points and saw an 8% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Winnipeg, MB experienced a +0.2 increase in demand and saw a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Toronto, ON saw a +0.2 increase in demand and experienced a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
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North York, ON remained at 3.8 demand points and experienced a +1% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Montreal, QC stayed at 1.3 demand points and experienced a 5% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Edmonton, AB remained at 1.0 demand points and experienced a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.
*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from March to April are showing continued demand growth, which may be attributed to normal seasonal shifts, as well as the roll out of vaccinations in these high-risk cities. We may begin to see primary markets reemerge as vaccines become more widespread and borders and travel reopen.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)
Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): April 2021 vs. April 2020
Notable Changes in Primary Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, total unique prospects per property increased 0.2% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up 33.2% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.
*This is the first time we've seen a year-over-year increase in primary market demand since the beginning of COVID.
Upward
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Scarborough, ON has experienced a +0.8 increase in demand from this time last year and has moved up 1 spot in primary markets, and an increase of 23% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
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Mississauga, ON moved up 1 spot, had a +0.1 point increase in demand, and a 4% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Vancouver, BC moved up 1 spot, experienced a +0.6 increase in demand and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
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Calgary, AB moved up 1 spot from this time last year and saw a +0.6 increase in demand and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Winnipeg, MB has seen a +0.5 increase in demand as well as a 29% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
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Toronto, ON increased demand by +0.1 points and saw a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
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Ottawa, ON remained at 1.8 in demand and saw a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property from last year.
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Edmonton, AB stayed at 1.0 in demand and saw a 3% increase in unique prospects per property.
Downward
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North York, ON saw a 1.2 reduction in demand and a 24% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Montreal, QC reduced demand by -1.5 and has seen a drastic decline of 55% in unique prospects per property.
*For the first time since the start of COVID, the majority of primary cities experienced an increase in demand. Certain primary cities such as Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB, and Edmonton, AB continue to see significant growth in rental demand. Scarborough, ON is also seeing demand increase year-over-year, likely due to migration away from Toronto into more affordable suburbs due to remote work.
*Toronto, ON saw its first year-over-year increase in demand since the beginning of COVID-19. However, Montreal, QC continues to see a downward trend in demand year-over-year, which is likely related to the strict lockdowns and curfews in Quebec that are preventing renters from moving around more freely.
Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)
Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): April 2021 vs. March 2021
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Secondary markets saw an increase of 6.3% prospects per property this month, with supply decreasing by 5.2% in these areas.
Upwards
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Brampton, ON saw an increase of +1.5 in demand and increased prospects per property by 27%.
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Halifax, NS experienced a +1.1 increase in demand and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Hamilton, ON increased demand by +0.6 and saw an 18% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
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Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.7 increase in demand and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.2 in demand and a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Windsor, ON experienced an increase of +0.3 demand points, and a 13% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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London, ON reported a +0.1 increase in demand and a 5% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
Downward
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Surrey, BC decreased demand by -1.0 points and saw a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Oshawa, ON saw a decrease of +0.6 in demand and a slight decrease of 7% in unique prospects per property.
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Quebec City, QC saw a decrease in demand by -0.2 this month and has seen a decrease of 15% in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
Canadian Cities – Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): April 2021 vs. April 2020
Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, unique prospects per property are up 22.8% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up 26.9% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.
Upward
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Surrey, BC increased demand by +2.6 and unique prospects per property by 29% this year versus last.
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Oshawa, ON increased demand by +4.4 points and 52% unique prospects per property this year versus last year.
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Brampton, ON increased demand by +0.1 points, and saw an increase in unique prospects per property by 1% this year versus last.
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Halifax, NS saw a 2.6 point increase in demand and a 56% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Hamilton, ON increased demand by +0.2 points this year and experienced an 18% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Victoria, BC experienced a +1.3 increase in demand and a 52% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.
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London, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 19% increase in prospects per property.
Downward
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Etobicoke, ON saw a decrease of -0.8 in demand and a 26% decrease in unique prospects per property.
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Windsor, ON experienced a -0.3 decrease in demand and saw a 10% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
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Quebec City, QC experienced a decrease of -0.2 in demand and a 16% decrease in unique prospects per property.
*The year-over-year demand in secondary markets continues to grow across many Canadian cities as we hit peak spring market, however, some Ontario and Quebec cities with dense populations continue to be most affected and are likely attributed to continued lockdowns in these regions, as well as space and affordability.
Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-175K)
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): April 2021 vs. March 2021
Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month
*Overall, tertiary markets continue to see growing month-over-month demand across most cities in these markets.
*Unique prospects per property increased by 17.9% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with a decrease of 1.2% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)
Upward
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Gatineau, QC experienced a +2.1 increase in demand and a 28% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Kitchener, ON increased by +0.4 in demand this month and experienced a 9% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Nepean, ON increased demand by +1.5 points and saw an increase of 41% in unique prospects per property this month.
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Burlington, ON went up +0.9 in demand and saw a 26% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Oakville, ON increased demand by +0.1 points this month versus last month and experienced a 3% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Richmond, BC experienced a +0.9 increase in demand points and a 32% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
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Sudbury, ON saw demand increase by +0.3 points this month versus last month and experienced an 11% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Regina, SK saw an increase of +0.1 in demand and 7% in unique prospects per property.
No Demand Change
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Saskatoon, SK remained at 1.4 in demand and saw an increase of 4% in unique prospects per property this month.
Downward
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Burnaby, BC saw a -0.3 decline in demand and a 5% decrease in unique prospects per property.
Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): April 2021 vs. April 2020
Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year
*Overall, total demand is up 7.2% this year versus the same time last year, and supply is up 38.1% this year versus the same time last year.
Upward
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Gatineau, QC increased demand by +0.3 points and 4% unique prospects per property from this time last year.
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Kitchener, ON increased demand by +1.2 points and 21% unique prospects per property from this time last year.
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Burnaby, BC saw a +1.0 increase in demand and a 29% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
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Burlington, ON increased demand by +0.9 demand points, and saw a 26% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Oakville, ON experienced a +0.3 increase in demand and a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.
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Richmond, BC went up +0.6 demand points and 42% in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
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Sudbury, ON increased its demand by +0.8 points and unique prospects per property by 31% this year versus the same time last year.
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Saskatoon, SK increased its demand by +0.3 points and unique prospects per property by 31% this year versus the same time last year.
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Regina, SK increased demand by +0.4 and went up 31% in unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.
Downward
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Nepean, ON experienced a -3.8 point decline in demand and a 51% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.
*It's worth noting that Nepean, ON increased its rental housing supply by 72% in 2021, which is causing demand to be much more spread out.
Conclusion
The data shown in this report reveals that the 2021 spring rental market is reporting elevated demand month-over-month, as well as year-over-year, across the majority of Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary cities.
As anticipated, as vaccines continue to roll out, we have seen a slight resurgence in some Primary markets such as in Toronto, ON, however, Montreal, QC continues to experience weakening demand likely attributed to stricter lockdown measures in this region. Secondary demand continues to outperform across the majority of these cities, as remote work and the search for space and greater affordability continues. It is also worth noting that the surge in real estate prices over the last year, is likely impacting the rental housing demand and will continue to do so for some time. As the price of real estate has skyrocketed over the past year, first-time homebuyers in certain Canadian markets are seeing rental housing as an affordable alternative until the market cools.
We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.