Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: November 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in unique leads per property across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique leads per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data. 

For example: Waterloo, ON received a demand score of 6.9 this month, versus 7.5 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an decreased it's demand score by 0.6 points this month.

Demand Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease in unique leads per property.

For example: The month-over-month unique leads per property in Waterloo, ON went down 18% in October versus September. In October 2021, the year-over-year Demand Score in Waterloo, ON went up 139% compared to September 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique leads per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Waterloo, ON moved up 6 spots on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. Year-over-year Waterloo, ON is up 11 spots since last year.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for October 2021 versus September 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from October 2021 versus October 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.

Key Takeaways:

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, unique leads per property from September to October decreased by -33.87%. The month-over-month market snapshot showed:

• Primary: Unique leads per property decreased -33.6%

• Secondary: Unique leads per property decreased -32.3%

• Tertiary: unique leads per property increased -33.8%

*The decrease in unique leads per property is relative to seasonality as the majority of cities across Canada experienced relative declines in month-over-month, it may also be related to a plateau that has been reached over the last 6 months of steady demand, and may also be reflective of a supply shortage for specific unit types that are popular among renters.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique leads per property? for multifamily residential housing is up +38.43% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada continues to rebound this year versus last. Overall, the year-over-year (October '21 vs October '20) data shows:

• Primary: Unique leads per property is up +34.6% 

• Secondary: Unique leads per property is up +52.9%

• Tertiary: Unique leads per property is up +65.5%

*The year-over-year rental market analysis for October 2021 shows that unique leads per property has rebounded significantly since October 2020, while Secondary and Tertiary continue to see gains in unique leads per property, Primary markets are once again showing an upwards trajectory. 

Keep in mind rent rates move with unique leads per property, when observing year-over-year trends across each market, rent rates have most consistently risen across Secondary and Tertiary markets. However, as Primary market demand continues to rebound, and with a surge of immigration ahead, we will continue to monitor this trend and how it may impact rent rates into 2022.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique leads per property per city for October 2021 versus September 2021

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

Overall, Canadian cities experienced a decrease in demand month-over-month (October 2021 vs September 2021), which is reflective of seasonality, however drops in demand are stable across the board for this time of year.

Cities with the lowest drop in demand

• Waterloo, ON moved to the top spot, and set the new demand score threshold for the month, scoring a 6.9 with the smallest decline in unique leads per property (-8%).

• Brampton, ON moved up 5 spots, with a -0.9 point decrease and only a 17% decline in unique leads per property.

• Cambridge, ON moved up 1 spot, saw a -1.5 point decrease and a 28% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Etobicoke, ON moved up 5 spots with a -1.0 point change and 20% decrease in demand, which shows stability into the fall months.

• Sudbury, ON moved up 1 spot this month, with a -1.3 point decrease and a 29% decline in unique leads per property.

• Montreal, QC moved up 1 spot from last month, with a -0.4 point decrease and a 30% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Fort McMurray, AB moved up 1 spot this month, with a -0.3 point decrease and 24% decrease in unique leads per property.

Cities with the highest drop in demand

• Surrey, BC moved down 3 spots with a demand point decrease of -4.2 due to a decline of 42% in unique leads per property.

• North Vancouver, BC saw a demand point decrease of -5.1 and a decline of 53% in unique leads per property this month versus its strengthened demand last month.

• Vancouver, BC dropped 6 spots this month with a -2.5 point decrease and 42% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Richmond, BC moved up 9 spots, saw a +2.2 point increase and a 65% increase in unique leads per property.

• St. Catharines, ON moved down 17 spots, and decreased -3.3 points with a decline of 52% in unique leads per property.

• St. John's, NL dropped 15 spots, and saw a decrease of -2.5 and a 57% decrease in unique leads per property, the highest for the month.

• Laval, QC moved up 6 spots, experienced a -1.2 point decrease, and a 56% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Red Deer, AB moved down 5 spots, and experienced a -0.5 point decrease, and a 40% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Richmond, BC moved up 3 spots, saw a +1.8 point increase and a 48% increase in unique leads per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): October 2021 vs. September 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Waterloo, ON jumped up 6 spots to the top spot, with a demand score of 6.9 and a decrease of 8% in unique leads per property.

2. Oshawa, ON moved up 1 spot, saw a -3.1 point decrease due to a 31% decrease in unique leads per property.

3. Burnaby, BC moved up 6 spots on the list this month, with a -1.3 point decrease and a decline of 18% in unique leads per property.

4. Surrey, BC saw a demand point decrease of -4.2 and 42% decrease in unique leads per property this month versus last.

5. Victoria, BC dropped 3 spots and saw a decrease of -4.4 points and a 44% decline in unique leads per property.

6. Halifax, NS moved down 1 spot into the top 10 list, with a -2.4 point decrease and a 30% decrease in unique leads per property.

7. New Westminster, BC moved down 1 spot with a -3.4 point change and a 32% decrease in unique leads per property.

8. Langley, BC entered the top 10 list after reaching over 20 properties on the market and saw a demand score of 4.7 points.

9. North Vancouver, BC moved down 5 spots, with a -5.1 decrease, and a 53% decrease in unique leads per property.

10. East York, ON moved down 2 spots, seeing a -2.8 point drop and a -38% decrease in unique leads per property.

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in October 2021 versus September 2021 came from BC. After reporting significant increases in unique leads per property over the last year, Surrey, BC, Victoria, BC, and North Vancouver, BC, saw the greatest drop this month, which is likely a sign that the market has reached a plateau. 

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): October 2021 vs. October 2020

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

1. Waterloo, ON jumped up 11 spots to the top spot this year, with a demand score of 6.9 and an increase of 139% in unique leads per property.

2. Oshawa, ON moved up 1 spot, saw a -0.4 point decrease due to a slight 6% decrease in unique leads per property this year versus last.

3. Burnaby, BC moved up 7 spots this year, with a +2.3 point increase and a 65% jump in unique leads per property.

4. Surrey, BC moved down 2 spots, and saw a decrease of -0.1 demand points and 2% decrease in unique leads per property this year versus last year.

5. Victoria, BC moved up 25 spots and saw an increase of +3.8 points and a 215% increase in unique leads per property this year versus last year.

6. Halifax, NS moved up 13 spots into the top 10 list, with a +2.8 point increase and a 101% increase in unique leads per property.

7. New Westminster, BC moved up 1 spot with a +1.1 point increase and a 27% increase in unique leads per property this year versus last.

8. Langley, BC entered the top 10 list after reaching over 20 properties on the market this year.

9. North Vancouver, BC moved down 1 spot, but still experienced a +1.9 point increase and a 64% increase in unique leads per property.

10. East York, ON moved up 3 spots into the top 10, seeing a +2.9 point increase and a 184% increase in unique leads per property.

*Since October 2020, a number of new cities have entered the top 10 list including Waterloo, ON, Burnaby, BC, Victoria, BC, Halifax, NS, and East York, ON. These cities have experienced major leaps in unique leads per property, many of which have been propelled by the pandemic, due to remote work, access to greater space and more affordable accommodations. It's clear that rent rates are correlated with this demand, as rates have increased in 90% of these cities for both 1BR and 2BR rentals, year-over-year. 

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

1. Primary (Populations Over 600K)

2. Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)

3. Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K).

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways:

Month-Over-Month (M/M)

• Primary: Unique leads per property decreased -33.6%

• Secondary: Unique leads per property decreased -32.3%

• Tertiary: Unique leads per property decreased -33.8%

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)

• Primary: Unique leads per property increased by +86% 

• Secondary: Unique leads per property increased by +105% 

• Tertiary: Unique leads per property increased by +123.5%

Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): October 2021 vs. September 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Unique leads per property in primary markets decreased this month versus last month likely due to seasonality as the majority of cities across Canada saw similar declines. Overall unique leads per property decreased by -33.6% in primary markets this month.

Downwards

• Vancouver, BC decreased by -2.5 demand points and declined by -42% in unique leads per property since last month.

• North York, ON saw a -1.6 point decrease and a -35% decrease in overall unique leads per property.

• Mississauga, ON saw a -1.2 decrease due to a -29% decrease in month-over-month unique leads per property.

• Calgary, AB saw a +1.2 point decrease and experienced a -31% decrease in unique leads per property from last month.

• Scarborough, ON experienced a -1.0 point decrease, and a -28% decline in unique leads per property since last month.

• Ottawa, ON went down -1.0 demand point and saw a 36% decrease in unique leads per property since the previous month.

• Toronto, ON saw a -0.6 demand point decrease due to a 33% decline in unique leads per property this month versus last.

• Winnipeg, MB decreased demand by -0.6 points and saw a 35% decrease in market demand this month versus last month.

• Edmonton, AB saw a -0.6 drop in demand points and a 37% decrease in unique leads per property.

• Montreal, QC experienced a -0.4 point decrease, and a -30% decline in unique leads per property since last month.

*Rent rates may reflect the overall decline given reduced rents in 60% of the cities for 1 BR and 40% of cities for 2 BR rentals month-over-month.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): October 2021 vs. October 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total unique leads per property increased +34.6% year-over-year in primary markets.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots, experiencing a +2.9 demand point increase and a 105% increase in unique leads per property year-over-year.

• North York, ON saw a 0.8 increase in demand from this time last year and an increase of 35% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Mississauga, ON reported a +0.8 point increase, and a 42% increase in unique leads per property this year versus last.

• Calgary, AB moved up 1 spot from this time last year and saw a +1.2 point increase and a 82% increase in unique leads per property.

• Scarborough, ON experienced a +1.6 point increase from this time last year and a 36% increase of unique leads per property.

• Ottawa, ON saw an increase of +0.5 demand points and a 37% lift in unique leads per property this year versus last.

• Toronto, ON increased by +0.5 points and saw a 33% increase in unique leads per property this October versus last October.

• Edmonton, AB moved up 1 spot and saw a +0.2 point increase with a lift of 24% in unique leads per property.

Downwards

• Winnipeg, MB saw a -0.2 point decrease from a 13% decline in unique leads per property.

• Montreal, QC decreased by -0.5 demand points and has seen a decrease of 35% in unique leads per property.

*Overall, year-over-year primary market unique leads per property has rebounded this year versus the same time last year. As more processes and measures have been put in place to maintain safe conditions for renting, and as vaccines have become more widely accessible, return to school, work, travel, and immigration has influenced this surge in demand.

Rent rates still remain in recovery in some primary markets but many have risen including 1 BR rentals in Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB, Toronto, ON, and Edmonton, ON and 2 BR rentals in Vancouver, BC, North York, ON, Mississauga, ON, Calgary, AB, and Toronto, ON.

Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): October 2021 vs. September 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw decrease of -32.3% unique leads per property this month, with each city in our top 10 list experiencing a decline, once again due to seasonal shifts in the fall rental market.