Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: September 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand, prospects per property, and rent rates it's possible to measure this against your own reporting, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result. Additionally, the report can help provide a leading indicator of emerging markets for property developers looking to explore new opportunities across Canada. 

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Waterloo, ON received a demand score of 8.7 this month, versus 5.2 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 3.5 points this month.

Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.

For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Waterloo, ON went up 67% in August versus July. In August 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Waterloo, ON have gone up 518% compared to August 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Waterloo, ON moved up 2 spots on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Waterloo, ON is up 17 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for August 2021 versus July 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from August 2021 versus August 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
 

Key Takeaways

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from July to August decreased by 6.9%, while the number of properties decreased by 22.9% this month versus last month. Therefore, the increase in demand per property is relative to the large decrease in supply. The month-over-month market snapshot showed:

• Primary: Supply decreased -25.5%, and demand increased +19.6%.
• Secondary: Supply decreased -21.9% and demand increased +28.7%.
• Tertiary: Supply decreased -1.4% and demand increased +4.5%.

*The increase in demand and decrease in supply is likely due to loosening restrictions for vaccinated travellers, plus a return to work and school for the fall across the majority of Canadian cities. This has been a pent up surge, especially in primary markets as renters are now returning to the downtown core, or choosing secondary markets and renting in commuter cities nearby.

Despite lower search volume in the month of August versus July, "demand" or "unique prospects per property" was up significantly due to a decrease in supply across the majority of Canadian cities.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up +164.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada has rebounded significantly this year versus last. Supply is up +1.7% with 130 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Overall, the year-over-year (August '21 vs August '20) data shows:

• Primary: Supply is up +2.4%, and demand increased by +154.6%.
• Secondary: Supply is up +1.4%, and demand is up +120.8%.
• Tertiary: Supply is up +1.5%, demand is up +119.2%.

The year-over-year rental market analysis for August 2021 shows that the rental housing surge has officially commenced as renters return to downtown cores, as well as greater movement across each market due to loosening restrictions to travel and immigration. Last year, the amount of unique prospects per property had stalled for a number of factors, however, prospects and properties have since implemented a number of working procedures to make touring and renting safe, and with many requiring closer access to school and work, there is no more time to delay moving, if you needed to find a rental for September.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for August 2021 versus July 2021

*We've added rent rates to our Top 50 month-over-month report to provide greater scope and understanding of the impact of affordability on demand, specifically for 1 Bedroom and 2 Bedroom units in these cities.

moved up 5 spots this month, with demand increasing by +1.3, and up 44% unique prospects per property.

*Gatineau, QC, Montreal, QC, Yellowknife, NWT, Medicine Hat, AB, Regina, SK, Quebec City, QC, Fort McMurray, AB, and Grande Prairie, AB all entered the top 50 this month.

No Demand Change

• Winnipeg, MB moved up 3 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 1.3 points, and a slight decrease of 2% in prospects per property.
• Lloydminster, BC moved up 3 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 1.2 points, and a slight decrease of 1% in prospects per property.
• Regina, SK entered the Top 50 this month, stayed at 0.9 demand points, with a 2% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Grand Prairie, AB entered the Top 50 list this month, but remained at 0.6 in demand, with a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Nanaimo, BC moved down 7 spots, experiencing a -0.4 decline in demand, and a 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
• Richmond, BC moved down 16 spots, experiencing a -3.0 decline in demand, and a 46% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
• Sudbury, ON moved down 2 spots, with a -0.2 decrease in demand, and a 7% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Burlington, ON saw a -0.4 decrease in demand, and a 13% drop in unique prospects per property.
• Oakville, ON moved down 11 spots this month, reducing demand by -0.7 points, and saw an 23% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Saskatoon, SK decreased demand by -0.2 points and went down 13% in unique prospects per property.
• Quebec City, QC entered the Top 50 this month, however due to an increase in supply, reduced demand by -0.2 points, and saw a 13% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): August 2021 vs. July 2021

many of these cities increased transit options for those commuting in and out of these cities, making them more attractive than they were previously to renters.